Optimization of regional power low-carbon transition pathways in China under differentiated tradable green certificates trading models

In line with China's carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the widespread adoption of renewable energy has become a key global and national trend. Tradable Green Certificates (TGC), used as a policy tool to implement the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) system, stimulate the supply and demand for renewable energy. China's current TGC trading model comprises Electricity Certificate Combination (ECC) and Electricity Certificate Separation (ECS). These models lead to varying low-carbon transition pathways in the regional power sector. This study investigates the development trends of low-carbon power under different TGC models, aiming to identify the optimal transition path. By formulating policy parameters from a global optimization perspective, this study considers factors such as power balance, natural resource allocation, technological constraints, and carbon reduction policies. Using a bottom-up optimization model for energy expansion, the study analyzes the impacts of different market models and carbon emission reduction pressures on China's low-carbon power transition from 2023 to 2050. The recommendation is first to use the ECC model to promote renewable energy development by 2030, then transition to the ECS model to optimize TGC benefits, achieving a balanced approach to carbon reduction, economic costs, and social costs for the sustainable development of electricity.