IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v224y2024ics0960148124002222.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Generation and validation of comprehensive synthetic weather histories using auto-regressive moving-average models

Author

Listed:
  • Rigby, Aidan
  • Baker, Una
  • Lindley, Benjamin
  • Wagner, Michael

Abstract

As energy system design moves to more complex methods of optimisation including machine learning there is a significant need for more weather data than is available. One method to solve this is using synthetic data models such as the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model which has been frequently utilised to create such data. This paper looks at extending the ARMA algorithm to generate solar components through the use of clearsky detrending, maintaining vector relationships and by leveraging physical relationships. The method for the creation of entirely synthetic weather data files including key weather variables for energy system analysis is presented. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of energy system simulations utilising both real and synthetic data is made using NREL’s System Advisor Model. Whilst good agreement is made for the solar variables, and other weather variables, ARMA methods often fail to capture the standard deviation and skew of annual weather distributions. Vector-ARMA is shown to maintain correlations between variables and thus generate data sets that perform similarly in energy system design. It is finally shown that the ARMA method fails to preserve day-today correlations in weather variables and thus over-predicts optimal energy storage by 21% for a residential solar application.

Suggested Citation

  • Rigby, Aidan & Baker, Una & Lindley, Benjamin & Wagner, Michael, 2024. "Generation and validation of comprehensive synthetic weather histories using auto-regressive moving-average models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:224:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124002222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.120157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148124002222
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2024.120157?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Xiaonan & El-Farra, Nael H. & Palazoglu, Ahmet, 2017. "Optimal scheduling of demand responsive industrial production with hybrid renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 53-64.
    2. Javier López Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2021. "The Economics of Variable Renewable Energy and Electricity Storage," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 443-467, October.
    3. Correa-Jullian, Camila & Cardemil, José Miguel & López Droguett, Enrique & Behzad, Masoud, 2020. "Assessment of Deep Learning techniques for Prognosis of solar thermal systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 2178-2191.
    4. Rehman, Shafiqur & Mohandes, Mohamed, 2008. "Artificial neural network estimation of global solar radiation using air temperature and relative humidity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 571-576, February.
    5. Hong, Sanghyun & Bradshaw, Corey J.A. & Brook, Barry W., 2015. "Global zero-carbon energy pathways using viable mixes of nuclear and renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 451-459.
    6. Dorvlo, Atsu S. S. & Jervase, Joseph A. & Al-Lawati, Ali, 2002. "Solar radiation estimation using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 307-319, April.
    7. Al-Alawi, S.M. & Al-Hinai, H.A., 1998. "An ANN-based approach for predicting global radiation in locations with no direct measurement instrumentation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 199-204.
    8. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    9. Maafi, A. & Adane, A., 1998. "Analysis of the performances of the first-order two-state Markov model using solar radiation properties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 175-193.
    10. repec:eme:hppsss:v:29:y:2013:i:2:p:88-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sengupta, Manajit & Xie, Yu & Lopez, Anthony & Habte, Aron & Maclaurin, Galen & Shelby, James, 2018. "The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 51-60.
    12. Chaiamarit, Kunjana & Nuchprayoon, Somboon, 2014. "Impact assessment of renewable generation on electricity demand characteristics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 995-1004.
    13. James Richards & Cristian Rabiti & Hiroyuki Sato & Xing L. Yan & Nolan Anderson, 2021. "Economic Dispatch Model of Nuclear High-Temperature Reactor with Hydrogen Cogeneration in Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Chen, Jun & Rabiti, Cristian, 2017. "Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 507-517.
    15. Magnano, L. & Boland, J.W., 2007. "Generation of synthetic sequences of electricity demand: Application in South Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2230-2243.
    16. Nowrouz Kohzadi & Milton S. Boyd & Iebeling Kaastra & Bahman S. Kermanshahi & David Scuse, 1995. "Neural Networks for Forecasting: An Introduction," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(3), pages 463-474, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zarzo, Manuel & Martí, Pau, 2011. "Modeling the variability of solar radiation data among weather stations by means of principal components analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(8), pages 2775-2784, August.
    2. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gomes, Álvaro & Gaspar, Adélio Rodrigues & Henggeler Antunes, Carlos, 2018. "Estimation of renewable energy and built environment-related variables using neural networks – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 959-988.
    3. Hejase, Hassan A.N. & Al-Shamisi, Maitha H. & Assi, Ali H., 2014. "Modeling of global horizontal irradiance in the United Arab Emirates with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 542-552.
    4. Jiang, Yingni, 2008. "Prediction of monthly mean daily diffuse solar radiation using artificial neural networks and comparison with other empirical models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3833-3837, October.
    5. Linares-Rodríguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vázquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín, 2011. "Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5356-5365.
    6. Almonacid, F. & Fernández, Eduardo F. & Rodrigo, P. & Pérez-Higueras, P.J. & Rus-Casas, C., 2013. "Estimating the maximum power of a High Concentrator Photovoltaic (HCPV) module using an Artificial Neural Network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 165-172.
    7. Yuan, Xiaohui & Tan, Qingxiong & Lei, Xiaohui & Yuan, Yanbin & Wu, Xiaotao, 2017. "Wind power prediction using hybrid autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and least square support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 122-137.
    8. Janjai, Serm & Plaon, Piyanuch, 2011. "Estimation of sky luminance in the tropics using artificial neural networks: Modeling and performance comparison with the CIE model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 840-847, March.
    9. Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Cornejo-Bueno, Laura & Camacho-Gómez, Carlos & Ghimire, Sujan, 2018. "An efficient neuro-evolutionary hybrid modelling mechanism for the estimation of daily global solar radiation in the Sunshine State of Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 79-94.
    10. Kheradmanda, Saeid & Nematollahi, Omid & Ayoobia, Ahmad Reza, 2016. "Clearness index predicting using an integrated artificial neural network (ANN) approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1357-1365.
    11. Shaddel, Mehdi & Javan, Dawood Seyed & Baghernia, Parisa, 2016. "Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted absorbers from horizontal one using Artificial Neural Network for case study of Mashhad," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 59-67.
    12. Heng, Jiani & Wang, Jianzhou & Xiao, Liye & Lu, Haiyan, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on frequent pattern growth algorithm and multi-objective optimization for solar radiation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 845-866.
    13. Kılıç, Fatih & Yılmaz, İbrahim Halil & Kaya, Özge, 2021. "Adaptive co-optimization of artificial neural networks using evolutionary algorithm for global radiation forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 176-190.
    14. Khatib, Tamer & Mohamed, Azah & Sopian, K., 2012. "A review of solar energy modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2864-2869.
    15. Emeksiz, Cem & Tan, Mustafa, 2022. "Wind speed estimation using novelty hybrid adaptive estimation model based on decomposition and deep learning methods (ICEEMDAN-CNN)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    16. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2013. "A comparative study of total, direct and diffuse solar irradiance by using different models on horizontal and inclined surfaces for Cairo, Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 853-863.
    17. Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Ivanova, Liliana & Vasileva, Siyana & Nivet, Marie Laure, 2013. "Neural network approach to estimate 10-min solar global irradiation values on tilted planes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 576-584.
    18. Mohammad Rezaie-Balf & Niloofar Maleki & Sungwon Kim & Ali Ashrafian & Fatemeh Babaie-Miri & Nam Won Kim & Il-Moon Chung & Sina Alaghmand, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Solar Radiation Using CEEMDAN Decomposition-Based MARS Model Trained by Crow Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, April.
    19. Gil, Juan D. & Topa, A. & Álvarez, J.D. & Torres, J.L. & Pérez, M., 2022. "A review from design to control of solar systems for supplying heat in industrial process applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    20. Hoyos-Gómez, Laura S. & Ruiz-Muñoz, Jose F. & Ruiz-Mendoza, Belizza J., 2022. "Short-term forecasting of global solar irradiance in tropical environments with incomplete data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:224:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124002222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.