IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v222y2024ics0960148124000089.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cohesive structure of Bi-directional long-short-term memory (BiLSTM) -GRU for predicting hourly solar radiation

Author

Listed:
  • Michael, Neethu Elizabeth
  • Bansal, Ramesh C.
  • Ismail, Ali Ahmed Adam
  • Elnady, A.
  • Hasan, Shazia

Abstract

Uncertain weather scenarios have an impact on the output of solar farms and therefore affect the security of the grid. It is advantageous for power system operators to forecast solar energy to balance the load generation and for optimal power scheduling. The most promising deep-learning techniques to combine weather variables with precise measurements of solar irradiance are not widely discussed. To close this research gap and produce better prediction results, this article aims to formulate and compare two distinctive deep learning algorithms for using time series forecasting approaches to predict solar irradiance. For multivariate data, the forecasting technique Bi-Directional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), and BiLSTM-GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) Dropout, are examined in this study. The output results from the proposed model are compared with other benchmark models based on performance error measurements, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was found that the proposed hybrid method, BiLSTM-GRU with dropout outperformed the other methods in terms of solar irradiance predicting accuracy. The analysis presented the best RMSE of 1.55 and MAE of 1.13 for BiLSTM and RMSE of 1.40 and MAE of 0.91 for BiLSTM-GRU architecture using hyperparameter tuning. The comparison results show that the prediction accuracy is improved by tuning the hyperparameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael, Neethu Elizabeth & Bansal, Ramesh C. & Ismail, Ali Ahmed Adam & Elnady, A. & Hasan, Shazia, 2024. "A cohesive structure of Bi-directional long-short-term memory (BiLSTM) -GRU for predicting hourly solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:222:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124000089
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.119943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148124000089
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2024.119943?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lima, Francisco J.L. & Martins, Fernando R. & Pereira, Enio B. & Lorenz, Elke & Heinemann, Detlev, 2016. "Forecast for surface solar irradiance at the Brazilian Northeastern region using NWP model and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 807-818.
    2. Akhter, Muhammad Naveed & Mekhilef, Saad & Mokhlis, Hazlie & Ali, Raza & Usama, Muhammad & Muhammad, Munir Azam & Khairuddin, Anis Salwa Mohd, 2022. "A hybrid deep learning method for an hour ahead power output forecasting of three different photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    3. Sharma, Amandeep & Kakkar, Ajay, 2018. "Forecasting daily global solar irradiance generation using machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2254-2269.
    4. Dai, Yeming & Wang, Yanxin & Leng, Mingming & Yang, Xinyu & Zhou, Qiong, 2022. "LOWESS smoothing and Random Forest based GRU model: A short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Zhang, Liwenbo & Wilson, Robin & Sumner, Mark & Wu, Yupeng, 2023. "Advanced multimodal fusion method for very short-term solar irradiance forecasting using sky images and meteorological data: A gate and transformer mechanism approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Sharma, Vikrant & Malik, Hasmat & Chandel, S.S., 2018. "Daily array yield prediction of grid-interactive photovoltaic plant using relief attribute evaluator based Radial Basis Function Neural Network," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2115-2127.
    8. Elizabeth Michael, Neethu & Hasan, Shazia & Al-Durra, Ahmed & Mishra, Manohar, 2022. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting based on a novel Bayesian optimized deep Long Short-Term Memory neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    9. VanDeventer, William & Jamei, Elmira & Thirunavukkarasu, Gokul Sidarth & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Soon, Tey Kok & Horan, Ben & Mekhilef, Saad & Stojcevski, Alex, 2019. "Short-term PV power forecasting using hybrid GASVM technique," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 367-379.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xilong Lin & Yisen Niu & Zixuan Yan & Lianglin Zou & Ping Tang & Jifeng Song, 2024. "Hybrid Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Model with Temporal Convolutional Network Using Maximal Information Coefficient and White Shark Optimizer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Akhter, Muhammad Naveed & Mekhilef, Saad & Mokhlis, Hazlie & Ali, Raza & Usama, Muhammad & Muhammad, Munir Azam & Khairuddin, Anis Salwa Mohd, 2022. "A hybrid deep learning method for an hour ahead power output forecasting of three different photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    3. Azizi, Narjes & Yaghoubirad, Maryam & Farajollahi, Meisam & Ahmadi, Abolfzl, 2023. "Deep learning based long-term global solar irradiance and temperature forecasting using time series with multi-step multivariate output," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 135-147.
    4. Jinfeng Wang & Wenshan Hu & Lingfeng Xuan & Feiwu He & Chaojie Zhong & Guowei Guo, 2024. "TransPVP: A Transformer-Based Method for Ultra-Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Zhou, Kaile & Chu, Yibo & Hu, Rong, 2023. "Energy supply-demand interaction model integrating uncertainty forecasting and peer-to-peer energy trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Dou, Weijing & Wang, Kai & Shan, Shuo & Li, Chenxi & Wang, Yiye & Zhang, Kanjian & Wei, Haikun & Sreeram, Victor, 2024. "Day-ahead Numerical Weather Prediction solar irradiance correction using a clustering method based on weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    8. Wu, Chun & Chen, Xingying & Hua, Haochen & Yu, Kun & Gan, Lei & Shen, Jun & Ding, Yi, 2024. "Peer-to-peer energy trading optimization for community prosumers considering carbon cap-and-trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    9. Srivastava, Raj Shekhar & Kumar, Anuruddh & Thakur, Harishchandra & Vaish, Rahul, 2022. "Solar assisted thermoelectric cooling/heating system for vehicle cabin during parking: A numerical study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 384-403.
    10. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    11. Lou, Siwei & Li, Danny H.W. & Lam, Joseph C., 2017. "CIE Standard Sky classification by accessible climatic indices," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 347-356.
    12. Rohani, Abbas & Taki, Morteza & Abdollahpour, Masoumeh, 2018. "A novel soft computing model (Gaussian process regression with K-fold cross validation) for daily and monthly solar radiation forecasting (Part: I)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 411-422.
    13. Correa-Jullian, Camila & López Droguett, Enrique & Cardemil, José Miguel, 2020. "Operation scheduling in a solar thermal system: A reinforcement learning-based framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    14. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    15. Honglin Xue & Junwei Ma & Jianliang Zhang & Penghui Jin & Jian Wu & Feng Du, 2024. "Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Microgrid Based on MultiScale CNN-LSTM Network Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-13, August.
    16. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Nanrun & Gong, Lihua & Jiang, Minlin, 2020. "Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Cai Tao & Junjie Lu & Jianxun Lang & Xiaosheng Peng & Kai Cheng & Shanxu Duan, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Feature Selection and Bias Compensation–LSTM Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.
    18. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "A new methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering power quality disturbance dimension reduction and elimination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    19. Pedregal, Diego J. & Trapero, Juan R., 2021. "Adjusted combination of moving averages: A forecasting system for medium-term solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Cervone, Guido & Clemente-Harding, Laura & Alessandrini, Stefano & Delle Monache, Luca, 2017. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 274-286.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:222:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124000089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.