IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v163y2021icp88-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel interval forecasting system for uncertainty modeling based on multi-input multi-output theory: A case study on modern wind stations

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Tongxiang
  • Zhao, Qiujun
  • Wang, Jianzhou
  • Gao, Yuyang

Abstract

With the growing demand for a clean energy source, wind power is drawing increasing attention. However, its intermittence and fluctuation set strict restrictions on its development and applications. Although a vast amount of research has been conducted on this subject, studies have failed to characterize the uncertainties of the growing intervals and have focus only on point prediction. Therefore, this paper proposes an interval prediction system that can effectively avoid the drawbacks of point forecasting. The system is composed of five units: a preprocessing unit, a feature selection unit, an optimization unit, a forecasting unit, and a result evaluation unit. The preprocessing unit, along with the feature selection unit, is applied to obtain the ideal input data. Then, the forecasting unit, whose key parameters are updated by the optimization unit, is used for interval prediction. The experimental results obtained from various evaluation metrics show that the accuracy of the developed system exceeds that of benchmark methods, and also confirm the possibility of applying the proposed method in the effective utilization of wind energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Tongxiang & Zhao, Qiujun & Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Yuyang, 2021. "A novel interval forecasting system for uncertainty modeling based on multi-input multi-output theory: A case study on modern wind stations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 88-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:88-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120313847
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.139?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    2. Dong, Lei & Wang, Lijie & Khahro, Shahnawaz Farhan & Gao, Shuang & Liao, Xiaozhong, 2016. "Wind power day-ahead prediction with cluster analysis of NWP," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1206-1212.
    3. Yu, Yan S.W. & Sun, Daming & Zhang, Jie & Xu, Ya & Qi, Yun, 2017. "Study on a Pi-type mean flow acoustic engine capable of wind energy harvesting using a CFD model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 602-612.
    4. Sun, Mucun & Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Multi-distribution ensemble probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 135-149.
    5. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    6. Wang, Yun & Wang, Jianzhou & Wei, Xiang, 2015. "A hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on phase space reconstruction theory and Markov model: A case study of wind farms in northwest China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 556-572.
    7. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    8. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    9. Wang, Jianzhou & Hu, Jianming, 2015. "A robust combination approach for short-term wind speed forecasting and analysis – Combination of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), SVM (Support Vec," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 41-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Sufan & Wu, Chuanshen & Gao, Shan & Pan, Guangsheng & Liu, Yu & Zhao, Xin & Wang, Sicheng, 2022. "Robust frequency risk-constrained unit commitment model for AC-DC system considering wind uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 395-406.
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Gao, Jialu & Wei, Danxiang, 2022. "Electric load prediction based on a novel combined interval forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    3. Zhu, Qiannan & Jiang, Feng & Li, Chaoshun, 2023. "Time-varying interval prediction and decision-making for short-term wind power using convolutional gated recurrent unit and multi-objective elephant clan optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    2. Theo, Wai Lip & Lim, Jeng Shiun & Ho, Wai Shin & Hashim, Haslenda & Lee, Chew Tin, 2017. "Review of distributed generation (DG) system planning and optimisation techniques: Comparison of numerical and mathematical modelling methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 531-573.
    3. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    5. Wang, Jujie & Li, Yaning, 2018. "Multi-step ahead wind speed prediction based on optimal feature extraction, long short term memory neural network and error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 429-443.
    6. Jiang, Ping & Wang, Biao & Li, Hongmin & Lu, Haiyan, 2019. "Modeling for chaotic time series based on linear and nonlinear framework: Application to wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 468-482.
    7. Liu, Hui & Mi, Xiwei & Li, Yanfei & Duan, Zhu & Xu, Yinan, 2019. "Smart wind speed deep learning based multi-step forecasting model using singular spectrum analysis, convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit network and Support Vector Regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 842-854.
    8. Liu, Hui & Mi, Xiwei & Li, Yanfei, 2018. "An experimental investigation of three new hybrid wind speed forecasting models using multi-decomposing strategy and ELM algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 694-705.
    9. Qunli Wu & Huaxing Lin, 2019. "Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Wang, Jianzhou & Du, Pei & Niu, Tong & Yang, Wendong, 2017. "A novel hybrid system based on a new proposed algorithm—Multi-Objective Whale Optimization Algorithm for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 344-360.
    11. Wang, H.Z. & Wang, G.B. & Li, G.Q. & Peng, J.C. & Liu, Y.T., 2016. "Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 80-93.
    12. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Lingjun & Zhang, Fan, 2022. "A deep asymmetric Laplace neural network for deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 497-517.
    13. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    14. Cai, Haoshu & Jia, Xiaodong & Feng, Jianshe & Li, Wenzhe & Hsu, Yuan-Ming & Lee, Jay, 2020. "Gaussian Process Regression for numerical wind speed prediction enhancement," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2112-2123.
    15. Jiang, Ping & Wang, Yun & Wang, Jianzhou, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 561-577.
    16. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shiqi & Yang, Wendong, 2019. "A novel non-linear combination system for short-term wind speed forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1172-1192.
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Chongchong, 2021. "A novel hybrid machine learning model for short-term wind speed prediction in inner Mongolia, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1565-1577.
    18. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    19. Yuyang Gao & Chao Qu & Kequan Zhang, 2016. "A Hybrid Method Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Firefly Algorithm, and BP Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-28, September.
    20. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:88-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.