IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v119y2017icp561-577.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term wind speed forecasting using a hybrid model

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Ping
  • Wang, Yun
  • Wang, Jianzhou

Abstract

Wind speed forecasting is a crucial issue in the wind power industry. However, the disadvantage of the existing wind speed forecasting models is that they often ignore similar fluctuation information between the adjacent WTGs (wind turbine generators), which leads to poor forecasting accuracy. This paper proposes a hybrid wind speed forecasting model to overcome this disadvantage. Specifically, grey correlation analysis is applied to select useful fluctuation information from the adjacent and observed WTGs, and the chosen fluctuation information is fed into the v-SVM (v-support vector machine), which offers good capability in nonlinear fitting, to perform wind speed forecasting of the observed WTGs. Meanwhile, to reduce the impacts of the model parameters on the final forecasting performance, CS (cuckoo search) is used to tune the parameters in the v-SVM. The results from two case studies show that the proposed model, which considers the fluctuation information of the adjacent WTG, offers greater accuracy than the other compared models. As concluded from the results of three accuracy tests, the performances of v-SVM and ε-SVM (ε-support vector machine) show no significant difference, and the CS algorithm is more efficient than the PSO (particle swarm optimization) for tuning of the parameters in the v-SVM.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Ping & Wang, Yun & Wang, Jianzhou, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 561-577.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:119:y:2017:i:c:p:561-577
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421631475X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2009. "Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, México, using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 274-278.
    2. Sfetsos, A., 2002. "A novel approach for the forecasting of mean hourly wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 163-174.
    3. Mohandes, M.A. & Halawani, T.O. & Rehman, S. & Hussain, Ahmed A., 2004. "Support vector machines for wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 939-947.
    4. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    5. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Weigang & Lu, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou, 2012. "Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 241-249.
    6. Ait Maatallah, Othman & Achuthan, Ajit & Janoyan, Kerop & Marzocca, Pier, 2015. "Recursive wind speed forecasting based on Hammerstein Auto-Regressive model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 191-197.
    7. Ramasamy, P. & Chandel, S.S. & Yadav, Amit Kumar, 2015. "Wind speed prediction in the mountainous region of India using an artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 338-347.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    10. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    11. Gneiting, Tilmann & Larson, Kristin & Westrick, Kenneth & Genton, Marc G. & Aldrich, Eric, 2006. "Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching SpaceTime Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 968-979, September.
    12. Cassola, Federico & Burlando, Massimiliano, 2012. "Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 154-166.
    13. Kwon, Soon-Duck, 2010. "Uncertainty analysis of wind energy potential assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 856-865, March.
    14. Wang, Jianzhou & Hu, Jianming & Ma, Kailiang & Zhang, Yixin, 2015. "A self-adaptive hybrid approach for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 374-385.
    15. Song, Zhe & Jiang, Yu & Zhang, Zijun, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
    16. Wang, Yun & Wang, Jianzhou & Wei, Xiang, 2015. "A hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on phase space reconstruction theory and Markov model: A case study of wind farms in northwest China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 556-572.
    17. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    18. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    19. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2012. "Applications of Bayesian methods in wind energy conversion systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    20. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
    21. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    2. Shah, Kamran Ali & Meng, Fantai & Li, Ye & Nagamune, Ryozo & Zhou, Yarong & Ren, Zhengru & Jiang, Zhiyu, 2021. "A synthesis of feasible control methods for floating offshore wind turbine system dynamics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. He, Qingqing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A hybrid system for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 756-771.
    4. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    6. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    7. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    8. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    9. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    10. Tian, Chengshi & Hao, Yan & Hu, Jianming, 2018. "A novel wind speed forecasting system based on hybrid data preprocessing and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 301-319.
    11. Zhang, Chi & Wei, Haikun & Zhao, Junsheng & Liu, Tianhong & Zhu, Tingting & Zhang, Kanjian, 2016. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and feature selection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 727-737.
    12. Emeksiz, Cem & Tan, Mustafa, 2022. "Multi-step wind speed forecasting and Hurst analysis using novel hybrid secondary decomposition approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    13. Wang, Jian & Yang, Zhongshan, 2021. "Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting using an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1418-1435.
    14. Song, Jingjing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A novel combined model based on advanced optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 643-658.
    15. Wang, Jianzhou & Xiong, Shenghua, 2014. "A hybrid forecasting model based on outlier detection and fuzzy time series – A case study on Hainan wind farm of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 526-541.
    16. Erasmo Cadenas & Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Christopher Heard, 2016. "Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    17. Flavie Didier & Yong-Chao Liu & Salah Laghrouche & Daniel Depernet, 2024. "A Comprehensive Review on Advanced Control Methods for Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Systems above the Rated Wind Speed," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-33, May.
    18. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Lingjun & Zhang, Fan, 2022. "A deep asymmetric Laplace neural network for deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 497-517.
    19. Ait Maatallah, Othman & Achuthan, Ajit & Janoyan, Kerop & Marzocca, Pier, 2015. "Recursive wind speed forecasting based on Hammerstein Auto-Regressive model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 191-197.
    20. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:119:y:2017:i:c:p:561-577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.