IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v147y2020ip1p663-671.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparisons of next-day solar forecasting for Singapore using 3DVAR and 4DVAR data assimilation approaches with the WRF model

Author

Listed:
  • Huva, Robert
  • Verbois, Hadrien
  • Walsh, Wilfred

Abstract

For tropical locations forecasting of solar irradiance at time horizons of 12 h, or longer, can only be achieved with the assistance of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. NWP models simulate the time evolution of atmospheric processes that are important for the prediction of solar irradiance. We use the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the atmosphere over Singapore down to 3-km resolution and for the years 2015–2016. However, by their nature the NWP models suffer from incomplete knowledge of atmospheric initial conditions. The process of Data Assimilation (DA) attempts to minimise the initial condition problem by incorporating observations into the model. DA utilises observations to constrain the state of the model either in a static (3DVAR) or time-evolving (4DVAR) manner. We compare hourly next-day forecasts using 3DVAR and 4DVAR intialisations of the WRF model with observations of surface irradiance across Singapore. Raw results show that 4DVAR has the lowest error for all time horizons and for all sky conditions except clear-sky hours. We then post-process the raw results using the random forest algorithm. Following post-processing, the 4DVAR initialised forecasts remain the best performing with relative RMSE of 37%. All models after post-processing out-perform persistence ensemble and climatological references.

Suggested Citation

  • Huva, Robert & Verbois, Hadrien & Walsh, Wilfred, 2020. "Comparisons of next-day solar forecasting for Singapore using 3DVAR and 4DVAR data assimilation approaches with the WRF model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 663-671.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:147:y:2020:i:p1:p:663-671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119313412
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zempila, Melina-Maria & Giannaros, Theodore M. & Bais, Alkiviadis & Melas, Dimitris & Kazantzidis, Andreas, 2016. "Evaluation of WRF shortwave radiation parameterizations in predicting Global Horizontal Irradiance in Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 831-840.
    2. Mohan Das & Md. Chowdhury & Someshwar Das & Sujit Debsarma & Samarendra Karmakar, 2015. "Assimilation of Doppler weather radar data and their impacts on the simulation of squall events during pre-monsoon season," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 901-931, June.
    3. Larson, David P. & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead forecasting of solar power output from photovoltaic plants in the American Southwest," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 11-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Wei & Zhang, Haoran & Zheng, Jianqin & Dai, Yuanhao & Huang, Liqiao & Shang, Wenlong & Liang, Yongtu, 2021. "A point prediction method based automatic machine learning for day-ahead power output of multi-region photovoltaic plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    2. Prasad, Ramendra & Ali, Mumtaz & Xiang, Yong & Khan, Huma, 2020. "A double decomposition-based modelling approach to forecast weekly solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 9-22.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anilkumar, T.T. & Simon, Sishaj P. & Padhy, Narayana Prasad, 2017. "Residential electricity cost minimization model through open well-pico turbine pumped storage system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 23-35.
    2. Verdone, Alessio & Scardapane, Simone & Panella, Massimo, 2024. "Explainable Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for multi-site photovoltaic energy production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    3. Mohsen Beigi & Hossein Beigi Harchegani & Mehdi Torki & Mohammad Kaveh & Mariusz Szymanek & Esmail Khalife & Jacek Dziwulski, 2022. "Forecasting of Power Output of a PVPS Based on Meteorological Data Using RNN Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, March.
    4. Costa, Suellen C.S. & Diniz, Antonia Sonia A.C. & Kazmerski, Lawrence L., 2018. "Solar energy dust and soiling R&D progress: Literature review update for 2016," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2504-2536.
    5. Jean-Maurice Cadet & Hassan Bencherif & Thierry Portafaix & Kévin Lamy & Katlego Ncongwane & Gerrie J. R. Coetzee & Caradee Y. Wright, 2017. "Comparison of Ground-Based and Satellite-Derived Solar UV Index Levels at Six South African Sites," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Di Somma, M. & Graditi, G. & Heydarian-Forushani, E. & Shafie-khah, M. & Siano, P., 2018. "Stochastic optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources with renewables considering economic and environmental aspects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 272-287.
    7. Ming Meng & Chenge Song, 2020. "Daily Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Model Based on Random Forest Algorithm for North China in Winter," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    8. Pape, Christian, 2018. "The impact of intraday markets on the market value of flexibility — Decomposing effects on profile and the imbalance costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 186-201.
    9. Gandoman, Foad H. & Abdel Aleem, Shady H.E. & Omar, Noshin & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Alenezi, Faisal Q., 2018. "Short-term solar power forecasting considering cloud coverage and ambient temperature variation effects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 793-805.
    10. Han, Chanok & Vinel, Alexander, 2022. "Reducing forecasting error by optimally pooling wind energy generation sources through portfolio optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    11. Medine Colak & Mehmet Yesilbudak & Ramazan Bayindir, 2020. "Daily Photovoltaic Power Prediction Enhanced by Hybrid GWO-MLP, ALO-MLP and WOA-MLP Models Using Meteorological Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Julián Urrego-Ortiz & J. Alejandro Martínez & Paola A. Arias & Álvaro Jaramillo-Duque, 2019. "Assessment and Day-Ahead Forecasting of Hourly Solar Radiation in Medellín, Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-29, November.
    13. Yajing Gao & Jing Zhu & Huaxin Cheng & Fushen Xue & Qing Xie & Peng Li, 2016. "Study of Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecast Based on Error Calibration under Typical Climate Categories," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-15, July.
    14. Michał Mierzwiak & Krzysztof Kroszczyński & Andrzej Araszkiewicz, 2022. "On Solar Radiation Prediction for the East–Central European Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, April.
    15. Christian Pape, 2017. "The impact of intraday markets on the market value of flexibility–Decomposing effects on profile and the imbalance costs," EWL Working Papers 1711, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    16. Michał Mierzwiak & Krzysztof Kroszczyński & Andrzej Araszkiewicz, 2023. "WRF Parameterizations of Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasts for Cold Fronts in Central and Eastern Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Kushwaha, Vishal & Pindoriya, Naran M., 2019. "A SARIMA-RVFL hybrid model assisted by wavelet decomposition for very short-term solar PV power generation forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 124-139.
    18. Lopes, Francis M. & Conceição, Ricardo & Fasquelle, Thomas & Silva, Hugo G. & Salgado, Rui & Canhoto, Paulo & Collares-Pereira, Manuel, 2020. "Predicted direct solar radiation (ECMWF) for optimized operational strategies of linear focus parabolic-trough systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 378-391.
    19. Sward, J.A. & Ault, T.R. & Zhang, K.M., 2022. "Genetic algorithm selection of the weather research and forecasting model physics to support wind and solar energy integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    20. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:147:y:2020:i:p1:p:663-671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.