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Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework

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  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten
  • Dahl, Christian Møller

Abstract

We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important “stylized facts” or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology.

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  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Dahl, Christian Møller, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 221-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:221-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    2. Song, MengXuan & Wu, BingHeng & Chen, Kai & Zhang, Xing & Wang, Jun, 2016. "Simulating the wake flow effect of wind turbines on velocity and turbulence using particle random walk method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 583-591.
    3. Zhongrong Zhang & Yiliao Song & Feng Liu & Jinpeng Liu, 2016. "Daily Average Wind Power Interval Forecasts Based on an Optimal Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System and Singular Spectrum Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    4. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Hüttel, Silke, 2017. "Quantifying the economic efficiency impact of inaccurate renewable energy price forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 767-774.
    5. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2014. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Discussion Papers 362, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    6. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2015. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 613-622.
    7. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Minimizing asymmetric loss in medium-term wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-208.
    8. María Pérez-Ortiz & Silvia Jiménez-Fernández & Pedro A. Gutiérrez & Enrique Alexandre & César Hervás-Martínez & Sancho Salcedo-Sanz, 2016. "A Review of Classification Problems and Algorithms in Renewable Energy Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-27, August.
    9. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2014. "A comparison of different wind power forecasting models to the Mycielski approach," Discussion Papers 355, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    10. Ziel, Florian & Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2016. "Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 285-297.
    11. Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    12. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.
    13. Jannik Schütz Roungkvist & Peter Enevoldsen, 2020. "Timescale classification in wind forecasting: A review of the state‐of‐the‐art," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 757-768, August.
    14. Piotr Powroźnik & Paweł Szcześniak & Łukasz Sobolewski & Krzysztof Piotrowski, 2022. "Novel Functionalities of Smart Home Devices for the Elastic Energy Management Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.

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