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A Markovian wind farm generation model and its application to adequacy assessment

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  • Miao, Shuwei
  • Xie, Kaigui
  • Yang, Hejun
  • Tai, Heng-Ming
  • Hu, Bo

Abstract

Wind profile, wake effect, and wind turbine outage create considerable impact on the energy production of a wind farm. This paper proposes a Markovian wind farm generation model that incorporates these factors. This model considers the wind farm as a generating unit with multiple generation states. The probability, frequency of occurrence, and transition rate of each state can be obtained using the collected wind profile data and wind turbine reliability parameters. The power output of each state is calculated using Jensen wake model and enumerated wind farm layouts. The proposed model is verified by a sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach using a test wind farm and recorded wind profile data from four different sites in North Dakota, USA. A state merging technique is developed to enable the application of the proposed model to adequacy assessment. The Roy Billiton Test System with a test wind farm is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed model and the procedure to adequacy assessment. Moreover, this paper investigates the influence of wake effect, peak load, seasonal wind pattern, wind turbine reliability parameters, and wind turbine type on system adequacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Miao, Shuwei & Xie, Kaigui & Yang, Hejun & Tai, Heng-Ming & Hu, Bo, 2017. "A Markovian wind farm generation model and its application to adequacy assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1447-1461.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:1447-1461
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.07.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Jianzhou & Hu, Jianming & Ma, Kailiang, 2016. "Wind speed probability distribution estimation and wind energy assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 881-899.
    2. Fthenakis, Vasilis & Kim, Hyung Chul, 2009. "Land use and electricity generation: A life-cycle analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1465-1474, August.
    3. Wen, Jiang & Zheng, Yan & Donghan, Feng, 2009. "A review on reliability assessment for wind power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2485-2494, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Şükrü İmre & Fatih Canıtez & Dilay Çelebi, 2021. "The Socio-Technical Transition to Electric Vehicle Mobility in Turkey: A Multi-Level Perspective," International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems (IJORIS), IGI Global, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Miao, Shuwei & Yang, Hejun & Gu, Yingzhong, 2018. "A wind vector simulation model and its application to adequacy assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 324-340.

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