IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v93y2008i5p687-698.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Informing risk-mitigation priorities using uncertainty measures derived from heterogeneous expert panels: A demonstration using foodborne pathogens

Author

Listed:
  • Hoffmann, Sandra
  • Fischbeck, Paul
  • Krupnick, Alan
  • McWilliams, Michael

Abstract

This article looks at a new approach to expert elicitation that combines basic elements of conventional expert elicitation protocols with formal survey methods and larger, heterogeneous expert panels. This approach is appropriate where the hazard-estimation task requires a wide range of expertise and professional experience. The ability to judge when to rely on alternative data sources often is critical for successful risk management. We show how a large, heterogeneous sample can support internal validation of not only the experts’ assessments but also prior information that is based on limited historical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Sandra & Fischbeck, Paul & Krupnick, Alan & McWilliams, Michael, 2008. "Informing risk-mitigation priorities using uncertainty measures derived from heterogeneous expert panels: A demonstration using foodborne pathogens," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 687-698.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:687-698
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832007000968
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Dolan & J. Humphrey, 2000. "Governance and Trade in Fresh Vegetables: The Impact of UK Supermarkets on the African Horticulture Industry," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 147-176.
    2. Spriggs, John & Hobbs, Jill E. & Fearne, Andrew, 2000. "Beef Producer Attitudes To Coordination And Quality Assurance In Canada And The Uk," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Harry Otway & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1992. "Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis and Management: Process, Context, and Pitfalls," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 83-93, March.
    4. Golan, Elise H. & Roberts, Tanya & Salay, Elisabete & Caswell, Julie A. & Ollinger, Michael & Moore, Danna L., 2004. "Food Safety Innovation In The United States: Evidence From The Meat Industry," Agricultural Economic Reports 34083, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amanda P. Rehr & Mitchell J. Small & Paul S. Fischbeck & Patricia Bradley & William S. Fisher, 2014. "The role of scientific studies in building consensus in environmental decision making: a coral reef example," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 60-87, March.
    2. Hernandez-Perdomo, Elvis & Guney, Yilmaz & Rocco, Claudio M., 2019. "A reliability model for assessing corporate governance using machine learning techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 220-231.
    3. Sandra Hoffmann & Paul Fischbeck & Alan Krupnick & Michael McWilliams, 2007. "Elicitation from Large, Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Using Multiple Uncertainty Measures to Characterize Information Quality for Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 91-109, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberta Rabellotti & Alessia Amighini, 2003. "The effect of globalisation on industrial districts in Italy: evidence from the footwear sector," ERSA conference papers ersa03p500, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Maertens, Miet & Verhofstadt, Ellen, 2013. "Horticultural exports, female wage employment and primary school enrolment: Theory and evidence from Senegal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 118-131.
    3. Stephanie BARRIENTOS & Gary GEREFFI & Arianna ROSSI, 2011. "Economic and social upgrading in global production networks: A new paradigm for a changing world," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 150(3-4), pages 319-340, December.
    4. Neven, David & Katjiuongua, Hikuepi & Adjosoediro, Ingrid & Reardon, Thomas & Chuzu, Pia Nwanza & Tembo, Gelson & Ndiyoi, Mukelabai, 2006. "Food Sector Transformation and Standards in Zambia: Smallholder Farmer Participation and Growth in the Dairy Sector," Staff Paper Series 11701, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    5. Sukhpal Singh, 2013. "Governance and upgrading in export grape global production networks in India," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series ctg-2013-33, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    6. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    7. Matanda, Margaret Jekanyika & Freeman, Susan, 2009. "Effect of perceived environmental uncertainty on exporter-importer inter-organisational relationships and export performance improvement," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 89-107, February.
    8. Belton, Ben & Haque, Mohammad Mahfujul & Little, David C. & Sinh, Le Xuan, 2011. "Certifying catfish in Vietnam and Bangladesh: Who will make the grade and will it matter?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 289-299, April.
    9. Riisgaard, Lone, 2009. "Global Value Chains, Labor Organization and Private Social Standards: Lessons from East African Cut Flower Industries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 326-340, February.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-496 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anna Giunta & Domenico Scalera & Francesco Trivieri & Jeffrey B. Nugent & Mariarosaria Agostino, 2011. "Firm Productivity, Organizational Choice and Global Value Chain," Working Papers 2011R09, Orkestra - Basque Institute of Competitiveness.
    12. Adu-Gyamfi Poku & Regina Birner & Saurabh Gupta, 2018. "Making Contract Farming Arrangements Work in Africa’s Bioeconomy: Evidence from Cassava Outgrower Schemes in Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Giger, Markus & Mutea, Emily & Kiteme, Boniface & Eckert, Sandra & Anseeuw, Ward & Zaehringer, Julie G., 2020. "Large agricultural investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki Area: Inventory and analysis of business models," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. repec:ilo:ilowps:369852 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Muriithi, Beatrice W. & Matz, Julia Anna, 2015. "Welfare effects of vegetable commercialization: Evidence from smallholder producers in Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 80-91.
    16. Dries, Liesbeth & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2002. "Finance, Investments And Restructuring In Polish Agriculture," PRG Working Papers 31881, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
    17. Solomon Asfaw & Dagmar Mithöfer & Hermann Waibel, 2010. "Agrifood supply chain, private‐sector standards, and farmers' health: evidence from Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(3‐4), pages 251-263, May.
    18. Eric Giraud-Héraud & Cristina Grazia & Abdelhakim Hammoudi, 2012. "Explaining the Emergence of Private Standards in Food Supply Chains," Working Papers hal-00749345, HAL.
    19. Mansell, Robin, 2001. "Digital opportunities and the missing link for developing countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19033, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Maertens, Miet & Swinnen, Johan, 2015. "Agricultural trade and development: A value chain perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    21. Matias Ramirez & Ian Clarke & Laurens Klerkx, 2018. "Analysing intermediary organisations and their influence on upgrading in emerging agricultural clusters," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 50(6), pages 1314-1335, September.
    22. Catherine Dolan & John Humphrey, 2004. "Changing Governance Patterns in the Trade in Fresh Vegetables between Africa and the United Kingdom," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(3), pages 491-509, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:687-698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.