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Sensitivity analysis and model calibration as a part of the model development process in radioactive waste disposal safety assessment

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  • Saveleva, Elena
  • Svitelman, Valentina
  • Blinov, Petr
  • Valetov, Dmitry

Abstract

Safety assessment and safety case development require uncertainty management as a key part of the confidence-building process. In application to the numerical modelling, the global sensitivity analysis and model calibration tools are widely employed for dealing with parametric and conceptual uncertainties. Even in the light of the broadly accepted paradigm that the safety assessment in general and the modelling itself are iterative procedures, the models are often treated as a fixed problem. In this paper, we present the illustrations of the concept that the sensitivity analysis and calibration provide significant information for model development, choice, and enhancement. The given examples show that uncertainty management steps are not the final stages of the computational model development, but an inseparable part of the modelling process.

Suggested Citation

  • Saveleva, Elena & Svitelman, Valentina & Blinov, Petr & Valetov, Dmitry, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis and model calibration as a part of the model development process in radioactive waste disposal safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:210:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100082x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107521
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helton, Jon C. & Hansen, Clifford W. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 44-63.
    2. Spiessl, Sabine M. & Kucherenko, Sergei & Becker, Dirk-A. & Zaccheus, Oluyemi, 2019. "Higher-order sensitivity analysis of a final repository model with discontinuous behaviour using the RS-HDMR meta-modeling approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 149-158.
    3. Deman, G. & Kerrou, J. & Benabderrahmane, H. & Perrochet, P., 2015. "Sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy to hydro-dispersive parameters: The case of ANDRA Meuse/Haute-Marne site," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 276-286.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buchwald, J. & Kolditz, O. & Nagel, T., 2024. "Design-of-Experiment (DoE) based history matching for probabilistic integrity analysis—A case study of the FE-experiment at Mont Terri," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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