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Progression of performance assessment modeling for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

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  • Rechard, Rob P.
  • Wilson, Michael L.
  • Sevougian, S. David

Abstract

This paper summarizes the evolution of consequence modeling for a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada. The discussion includes four early performance assessments (PAs) conducted between 1982 and 1995 to support selection and to evaluate feasibility and three major PAs conducted between 1998 and 2008 to evaluate viability, recommend the site, and assess compliance. Modeling efforts in 1982 estimated dose to individuals 18km from the site caused by volcanic eruption through the repository. Modeling in 1984 estimated releases via the groundwater pathway because of container corrosion. In combination, this early analysis supported the first environmental assessment. Analysts in 1991 evaluated cumulative release, as specified in the 1985 US radiation protection standards, via the groundwater pathway over 104yr at a 5-km boundary by modeling waste degradation and flow/transport in the saturated and unsaturated zones. By 1992, however, the US Congress mandated a change to a dose measure. Thus, the 1993 and 1995 performance assessments improved modeling of waste container degradation to provide better estimates of radionuclide release rates out to 106yr. The 1998 viability assessment was a major step in modeling complexity. Dose at a 20-km boundary from the repository was evaluated through 106yr for undisturbed conditions using more elaborate modeling of flow and the addition of modules for modeling infiltration, drift seepage, the chemical environment, and biosphere transport. The 2000 assessment for the site recommendation refined the analysis. Seepage modeling was greatly improved and waste form degradation modeling included more chemical dependence. The 2008 compliance assessment for the license application incorporated the influence of the seismicity on waste package performance to evaluate dose at an ~18-km boundary.

Suggested Citation

  • Rechard, Rob P. & Wilson, Michael L. & Sevougian, S. David, 2014. "Progression of performance assessment modeling for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 96-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:122:y:2014:i:c:p:96-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. B. Kersting & D. W. Efurd & D. L. Finnegan & D. J. Rokop & D. K. Smith & J. L. Thompson, 1999. "Migration of plutonium in ground water at the Nevada Test Site," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6714), pages 56-59, January.
    2. Helton, Jon C. & Hansen, Clifford W. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 44-63.
    3. Norman A. Eisenberg & Michael P. Lee & Timothy J. McCartin & Keith I. McConnell & Mark Thaggard & Andrew C. Campbell, 1999. "Development of a Performance Assessment Capability in the Waste Management Programs of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 847-876, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Suh, Jung Woo & Sohn, So Young & Lee, Bo Kyeong, 2020. "Patent clustering and network analyses to explore nuclear waste management technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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