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Reliability analysis of flood defenses: The case of the Nezahualcoyotl dike in the aztec city of Tenochtitlan

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  • Torres-Alves, Gina Alexandra
  • Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

Abstract

In some cases, hydraulic infrastructures of different sizes and importance are built without formal design criteria and it may be desired to infer the reliability level for which it was originally designed. In this paper, we present a method to perform the reliability analysis of a dike that was, in all likelihood, designed without probabilistic criteria. This is the Nezahualcoyotl dike, an ancient structure built by the Aztec empire around 1445 in modern-day Mexico City. The method consists of 1. Characterizing time-series of relevant environmental variables. We use precipitation and evaporation by combining a discrete time-state Markov chain with a copula-based stochastic process. 2. Simulating from the time series model a large number of observations to “load†the structure of interest and finally, 3. Compute the probability of failure of the structure with respect to a failure mechanism. In this case, we focus on overflow. The proposed model is able to reproduce to a good extent the hydrology of the system. The return period for overflow obtained in our research is consistent with historical accounts. This work can be used as a reference to assess the reliability of other (ancient or present-day) structures whose design is based on informal criteria.

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  • Torres-Alves, Gina Alexandra & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2020. "Reliability analysis of flood defenses: The case of the Nezahualcoyotl dike in the aztec city of Tenochtitlan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020305585
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muh Marfai & Andung Sekaranom & Philip Ward, 2015. "Community responses and adaptation strategies toward flood hazard in Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1127-1144, January.
    2. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    3. Acar, Elif F. & Czado, Claudia & Lysy, Martin, 2019. "Flexible dynamic vine copula models for multivariate time series data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 181-197.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rongen, G. & Morales-Nápoles, O. & Kok, M., 2022. "Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    2. Oliveira, Ricardo P. & Achcar, Jorge A. & Mazucheli, Josmar & Bertoli, Wesley, 2021. "A new class of bivariate Lindley distributions based on stress and shock models and some of their reliability properties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Fahad, Md Golam Rabbani & Nazari, Rouzbeh & Motamedi, M.H. & Karimi, Maryam, 2022. "A Decision-Making Framework Integrating Fluid and Solid Systems to Assess Resilience of Coastal Communities Experiencing Extreme Storm Events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).

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