IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v193y2020ics0951832019300456.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reliability modeling for a two-phase degradation system with a change point based on a Wiener process

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Hongda
  • Cui, Lirong
  • Dong, Qinglai

Abstract

A two-phase degradation system with a change point is commonly seen in many real-world degradation systems due to influence of internal mechanisms and external environments, such as lithium-ion batteries, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), plasma display panels (PDPs), and vacuum fluorescent displays (VFDs). Random jumps exist at the change points of the degradation processes. Motivated by this phenomenon, this paper attempts to model such kinds of systems based on the Wiener process. Specifically, In Model 1, a constant change point model is first considered. The analytical results of the system reliability, lifetime distribution, and the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) are obtained. Then, based on Model 1, a random change point model, i.e., Model 2, is proposed to explain the change point phenomenon which is influenced by the accumulative effect of a shock process. Two phase-change patterns (PCPs) are considered in Model 2. For PCP I, the change point is triggered when the number of shocks reaches a predetermined threshold. For PCP II, the change point is triggered when the accumulative shock damage exceeds the corresponding threshold. The system reliability indexes are studied by using analytical and simulation methods. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the approaches and results.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Hongda & Cui, Lirong & Dong, Qinglai, 2020. "Reliability modeling for a two-phase degradation system with a change point based on a Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019300456
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832019300456
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106601?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gao, Hongda & Cui, Lirong & Kong, Dejing, 2018. "Reliability analysis for a Wiener degradation process model under changing failure thresholds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-8.
    2. Wen, Yuxin & Wu, Jianguo & Das, Devashish & Tseng, Tzu-Liang(Bill), 2018. "Degradation modeling and RUL prediction using Wiener process subject to multiple change points and unit heterogeneity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 113-124.
    3. Ramin Moghaddass & Ming Zuo, 2014. "Multistate degradation and supervised estimation methods for a condition-monitored device," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 131-148.
    4. Koosha Rafiee & Qianmei Feng & David Coit, 2014. "Reliability modeling for dependent competing failure processes with changing degradation rate," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 483-496.
    5. Nan Chen & Kwok Tsui, 2013. "Condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction using degradation signals: revisited," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(9), pages 939-952.
    6. Zhi‐Sheng Ye & Min Xie, 2015. "Rejoinder to ‘Stochastic modelling and analysis of degradation for highly reliable products’," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 35-36, January.
    7. Gao, Hongda & Cui, Lirong & Qiu, Qingan, 2019. "Reliability modeling for degradation-shock dependence systems with multiple species of shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 133-143.
    8. Yin Shu & Qianmei Feng & David W. Coit, 2015. "Life distribution analysis based on Lévy subordinators for degradation with random jumps," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(6), pages 483-492, September.
    9. Peng, Weiwen & Li, Yan-Feng & Yang, Yuan-Jian & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Zuo, Ming J., 2014. "Inverse Gaussian process models for degradation analysis: A Bayesian perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 175-189.
    10. Zhao, Xian & Wang, Siqi & Wang, Xiaoyue & Cai, Kui, 2018. "A multi-state shock model with mutative failure patterns," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Bae, Suk Joo & Yuan, Tao & Ning, Shuluo & Kuo, Way, 2015. "A Bayesian approach to modeling two-phase degradation using change-point regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 66-74.
    12. An, Zongwen & Sun, Daoming, 2017. "Reliability modeling for systems subject to multiple dependent competing failure processes with shock loads above a certain level," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 129-138.
    13. Zhi‐Sheng Ye & Min Xie, 2015. "Stochastic modelling and analysis of degradation for highly reliable products," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 16-32, January.
    14. van Noortwijk, J.M., 2009. "A survey of the application of gamma processes in maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kong, Xuefeng & Yang, Jun & Hao, Songhua, 2021. "Reliability modeling-based tolerance design and process parameter analysis considering performance degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Ma, Jie & Cai, Li & Liao, Guobo & Yin, Hongpeng & Si, Xiaosheng & Zhang, Peng, 2023. "A multi-phase Wiener process-based degradation model with imperfect maintenance activities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Santos, Cristiano C. & Loschi, Rosangela H., 2020. "Semi-parametric Bayesian models for heterogeneous degradation data: An application to laser data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Wang, Shunli & Fan, Yongcun & Jin, Siyu & Takyi-Aninakwa, Paul & Fernandez, Carlos, 2023. "Improved anti-noise adaptive long short-term memory neural network modeling for the robust remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Fang, Chen & Cui, Lirong, 2021. "Balanced Systems by Considering Multi-state Competing Risks Under Degradation Processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Pedersen, Tom Ivar & Liu, Xingheng & Vatn, Jørn, 2023. "Maintenance optimization of a system subject to two-stage degradation, hard failure, and imperfect repair," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Zheng, Huiling & Yang, Jun & Xu, Houbao & Zhao, Yu, 2023. "Reliability acceptance sampling plan for degraded products subject to Wiener process with unit heterogeneity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    8. Liao, Guobo & Yin, Hongpeng & Chen, Min & Lin, Zheng, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction for multi-phase deteriorating process based on Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    9. Jiang, Shan & Jia, Xujie, 2024. "Reliability assessment under continuous fatigue degradation and shock based on Markov renewal process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Chen, Zhen & Li, Yaping & Zhou, Di & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2021. "Two-phase degradation data analysis with change-point detection based on Gaussian process degradation model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Veloso, Guilherme A. & Loschi, Rosangela H., 2021. "Dynamic linear degradation model: Dealing with heterogeneity in degradation paths," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ling, M.H. & Ng, H.K.T. & Tsui, K.L., 2019. "Bayesian and likelihood inferences on remaining useful life in two-phase degradation models under gamma process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 77-85.
    2. Wang, Xiaolin & Liu, Bin & Zhao, Xiujie, 2021. "A performance-based warranty for products subject to competing hard and soft failures," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Dong, Qinglai & Cui, Lirong, 2019. "A study on stochastic degradation process models under different types of failure Thresholds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 202-212.
    4. Junyu Guo & Hong-Zhong Huang & Weiwen Peng & Jie Zhou, 2019. "Bayesian information fusion for degradation analysis of deteriorating products with individual heterogeneity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 615-622, August.
    5. Wang, Jun & Zhu, Xiaoyan, 2021. "Joint optimization of condition-based maintenance and inventory control for a k-out-of-n:F system of multi-state degrading components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 514-529.
    6. Hu, Jiawen & Shen, Jingyuan & Shen, Lijuan, 2020. "Opportunistic maintenance for two-component series systems subject to dependent degradation and shock," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Liao, Guobo & Yin, Hongpeng & Chen, Min & Lin, Zheng, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction for multi-phase deteriorating process based on Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Gao, Hongda & Cui, Lirong & Qiu, Qingan, 2019. "Reliability modeling for degradation-shock dependence systems with multiple species of shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 133-143.
    9. Chang, Miaoxin & Huang, Xianzhen & Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2021. "Reliability analysis for systems based on degradation rates and hard failure thresholds changing with degradation levels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    10. Zhengxin Zhang & Xiaosheng Si & Changhua Hu & Xiangyu Kong, 2015. "Degradation modeling–based remaining useful life estimation: A review on approaches for systems with heterogeneity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(4), pages 343-355, August.
    11. Xudan Chen & Guoxun Ji & Xinli Sun & Zhen Li, 2019. "Inverse Gaussian–based model with measurement errors for degradation analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(6), pages 1086-1098, December.
    12. Chen, Zhen & Li, Yaping & Zhou, Di & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2021. "Two-phase degradation data analysis with change-point detection based on Gaussian process degradation model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Sun, Fuqiang & Li, Hao & Cheng, Yuanyuan & Liao, Haitao, 2021. "Reliability analysis for a system experiencing dependent degradation processes and random shocks based on a nonlinear Wiener process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Liu, Bin & Zhao, Xiujie & Liu, Guoquan & Liu, Yiqi, 2020. "Life cycle cost analysis considering multiple dependent degradation processes and environmental influence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    15. Song, Kai & Cui, Lirong, 2022. "A common random effect induced bivariate gamma degradation process with application to remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    16. Kang, Fengming & Cui, Lirong & Ye, Zhisheng & Zhou, Yu, 2024. "Reliability analysis for systems with self-healing mechanism in degradation-shock dependence processes with changing degradation rate," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Fang, Guanqi & Pan, Rong & Hong, Yili, 2020. "Copula-based reliability analysis of degrading systems with dependent failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Wang, Jia & Han, Xu & Zhang, Yun-an & Bai, Guanghan, 2021. "Modeling the varying effects of shocks for a multi-stage degradation process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    19. Song, Kai & Shi, Jian & Yi, Xiaojian, 2020. "A time-discrete and zero-adjusted gamma process model with application to degradation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    20. Zhang, Ao & Wang, Zhihua & Bao, Rui & Liu, Chengrui & Wu, Qiong & Cao, Shihao, 2023. "A novel failure time estimation method for degradation analysis based on general nonlinear Wiener processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019300456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.