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Statistical modeling of types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents in the United States

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  • Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh
  • Khattak, Aemal
  • Thompson, Eric

Abstract

Rail incidents involving release of crude oil from train tank cars is a safety concern. The objectives of this study are identification and quantification of the impacts of different factors on types and consequences of crude oil release from trains, and investigation of the impacts of types and consequences of release on the resulting costs. Two separate multinomial models for types of release (gas dispersion, spillage or both) and consequences of release (fire, explosion or none), and one joint multinomial model were estimated using 10-year crude oil release data. Non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, lower probability of fire and explosion, and lower costs. Tank car head puncture resistance system and tank car insulation increased the probability of gas dispersion. Increase in quantity of spillage, increased the probability of fire and explosion, significantly. Robust linear regression models captured the effects of types and consequences of release on post-release costs. While sufficient evidence was not found regarding a relationship between types of release and costs, fires and explosions significantly increased the costs. These findings can assist decision-making regarding safety improvement of rail-based crude oil transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh & Khattak, Aemal & Thompson, Eric, 2019. "Statistical modeling of types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents in the United States," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 232-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:232-239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manish Verma & Vedat Verter, 2013. "Railroad Transportation of Hazardous Materials: Models for Risk Assessment and Management," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Rajan Batta & Changhyun Kwon (ed.), Handbook of OR/MS Models in Hazardous Materials Transportation, edition 127, pages 9-47, Springer.
    2. McFadden, Daniel, 1980. "Econometric Models for Probabilistic Choice among Products," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 13-29, July.
    3. Ioannis Kosmidis & David Firth, 2011. "Multinomial logit bias reduction via the Poisson log-linear model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(3), pages 755-759.
    4. Olufolajimi Oke & Daniel Huppmann & Max Marshall & Ricky Poulton & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2016. "Mitigating Environmental and Public-Safety Risks of United States Crude-by-Rail Transport," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1575, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    1. Iranitalab, Amirfarrokh & Khattak, Aemal, 2020. "Probabilistic classification of hazardous materials release events in train incidents and cargo tank truck crashes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

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