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Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities

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  • Hatzikyriakou, Adam
  • Lin, Ning

Abstract

Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatzikyriakou, Adam & Lin, Ning, 2017. "Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 106-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:158:y:2017:i:c:p:106-116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.10.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    2. Siyuan Xian & Ning Lin & Adam Hatzikyriakou, 2015. "Storm surge damage to residential areas: a quantitative analysis for Hurricane Sandy in comparison with FEMA flood map," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1867-1888, December.
    3. Kathryn Bartimote-Aufflick & Peter C. Thomson, 2011. "The analysis of ordinal time-series data via a transition (Markov) model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 1883-1897, September.
    4. S. le Cessie & J. C. van Houwelingen, 1994. "Logistic Regression for Correlated Binary Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 43(1), pages 95-108, March.
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