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The analysis of ordinal time-series data via a transition (Markov) model

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  • Kathryn Bartimote-Aufflick
  • Peter C. Thomson

Abstract

While standard techniques are available for the analysis of time-series (longitudinal) data, and for ordinal (rating) data, not much is available for the combination of the two, at least in a readily-usable form. However, this data type is common place in the natural and health sciences where repeated ratings are recorded on the same subject. To analyse these data, this paper considers a transition (Markov) model where the rating of a subject at one time depends explicitly on the observed rating at the previous point of time by incorporating the previous rating as a predictor variable. Complications arise with adequate handling of data at the first observation ( t =1), as there is no prior observation to use as a predictor. To overcome this, it is postulated the existence of a rating at time t =0; however it is treated as ‘missing data’ and the expectation--maximisation algorithm used to accommodate this. The particular benefits of this method are shown for shorter time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Bartimote-Aufflick & Peter C. Thomson, 2011. "The analysis of ordinal time-series data via a transition (Markov) model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 1883-1897, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:9:p:1883-1897
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2010.529885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. JosE Eduardo Corrente & Maria Del Pilar DIAz, 2003. "Ordinal models and generalized estimating equations to evaluate disease severity," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 425-439.
    2. Youngjo Lee, 2007. "Linear and Generalized Linear Models and their Applications by J. JIANG," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 1297-1298, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hatzikyriakou, Adam & Lin, Ning, 2017. "Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 106-116.
    2. Jones, Calvin & Jordan, Declan, 2014. "Competitiveness in Soccer Leagues: An ordinal time series approach with evidence from the Premier League 1993 to 2014," MPRA Paper 61193, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2014.

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