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Simulation-based Bayesian optimal ALT designs for model discrimination

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  • Nasir, Ehab A.
  • Pan, Rong

Abstract

Accelerated life test (ALT) planning in Bayesian framework is studied in this paper with a focus of differentiating competing acceleration models, when there is uncertainty as to whether the relationship between log mean life and the stress variable is linear or exhibits some curvature. The proposed criterion is based on the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal stress-factor setup and unit allocation are determined at three stress levels subject to test-lab equipment and test-duration constraints. Optimal designs are validated by their recovery rates, where the true, data-generating, model is selected under the DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) model selection rule, and by comparing their performance with other test plans. Results show that the proposed optimal design method has the advantage of substantially increasing a test plan׳s ability to distinguish among competing ALT models, thus providing better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the follow-on testing phase in the experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasir, Ehab A. & Pan, Rong, 2015. "Simulation-based Bayesian optimal ALT designs for model discrimination," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:134:y:2015:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    2. Haghighi, Firoozeh, 2014. "Optimal design of accelerated life tests for an extension of the exponential distribution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 251-256.
    3. Stefanie Biedermann & Holger Dette & Philipp Hoffmann, 2009. "Constrained optimal discrimination designs for Fourier regression models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 61(1), pages 143-157, March.
    4. J. McGree & J. Eccleston, 2010. "Investigating design for survival models," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 295-311, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin, Yi-Chao & Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2017. "An imprecise statistical method for accelerated life testing using the power-Weibull model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 158-167.
    2. Lu, Yaohui & Zheng, Heyan & Zeng, Jing & Chen, Tianli & Wu, Pingbo, 2019. "Fatigue life reliability evaluation in a high-speed train bogie frame using accelerated life and numerical test," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 221-232.
    3. Insua, David Rios & Ruggeri, Fabrizio & Soyer, Refik & Wilson, Simon, 2020. "Advances in Bayesian decision making in reliability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 1-18.
    4. Qin, Shuidan & Wang, Bing Xing & Wu, Wenhui & Ma, Chao, 2022. "The prediction intervals of remaining useful life based on constant stress accelerated life test data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 747-755.
    5. Abdullah AH Ahmadini & Frank PA Coolen, 2020. "Statistical inference for the Arrhenius-Weibull accelerated life testing model with imprecision based on the likelihood ratio test," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 275-289, April.

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