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Estimation and forecasting of concrete debris amount in China

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  • Shi, Jianguang
  • Xu, Yuezhou

Abstract

With the rapid economic development in China, the resource shortage and environment pollution have become more and more serious. Construction business, as one of the main industries, consumes a great deal of natural resource, and at the same time induced mass of civil engineering waste (CEW). Recycling CEW cannot only effectively deal with the pollution problem of environment, but also greatly decrease the consumption of natural resource. In order to get a quantitative cognition about concrete debris (CD), this paper estimated the quantity of CD based on the annual cement production and the building areas respectively. The approach based on cement production is suitable to estimate the total quantity of CD. The approach based on building areas is proper to estimate the quantity of CD in building construction. The future quantity of CD is also forecasted. The established Gray forecasting model is used to estimate future building areas. And a time series forecast of GDP is used to estimate future cement production which is used to estimate the rate of rubble development. The results indicated that the quantity of CD in 2000 reached 88 million metric tonnes in China and the annual increasing rate will be more than 8% in future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Jianguang & Xu, Yuezhou, 2006. "Estimation and forecasting of concrete debris amount in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 147-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:49:y:2006:i:2:p:147-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2006.03.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hsiao, T. Y. & Huang, Y. T. & Yu, Y. H. & Wernick, I. K., 2002. "Modeling materials flow of waste concrete from construction and demolition wastes in Taiwan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 39-47.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xuping, 2008. "Recycling and reuse of waste concrete in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 36-44.
    2. Xiao, Jianzhuang & Xie, He & Zhang, Chuanzeng, 2012. "Investigation on building waste and reclaim in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 109-117.
    3. Chung, Shan Shan, 2010. "Projecting municipal solid waste: The case of Hong Kong SAR," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 759-768.
    4. Li, Yashuai & Zhang, Xueqing & Ding, Guoyu & Feng, Zhouquan, 2016. "Developing a quantitative construction waste estimation model for building construction projects," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 9-20.
    5. García-Torres, Samy & Kahhat, Ramzy & Santa-Cruz, Sandra, 2017. "Methodology to characterize and quantify debris generation in residential buildings after seismic events," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 151-159.
    6. Wang, Tao & Tian, Xin & Hashimoto, Seiji & Tanikawa, Hiroki, 2015. "Concrete transformation of buildings in China and implications for the steel cycle," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 205-215.
    7. Hongmei Liu & Rong Guo & Junjie Tian & Honghao Sun & Yi Wang & Haiyan Li & Lu Yao, 2022. "Quantifying the Carbon Reduction Potential of Recycling Construction Waste Based on Life Cycle Assessment: A Case of Jiangsu Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Anna M. Grabiec & Jeonghyun Kim & Andrzej Ubysz & Pilar Bilbao, 2021. "Some Remarks towards a Better Understanding of the Use of Concrete Recycled Aggregate: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Gi-Wook Cha & Choon-Wook Park & Young-Chan Kim & Hyeun Jun Moon, 2023. "Predicting Generation of Different Demolition Waste Types Using Simple Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Zhao, W. & Leeftink, R.B. & Rotter, V.S., 2010. "Evaluation of the economic feasibility for the recycling of construction and demolition waste in China—The case of Chongqing," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 377-389.

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