IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/recore/v121y2017icp115-127.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of power generation on air quality in China—Part II: Future scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Jianlin
  • Huang, Lin
  • Chen, Mindong
  • He, Gang
  • Zhang, Hongliang

Abstract

Power generation is an important source of air pollution in China since it is mostly from coal-fired power plants. Future power generation plans are needed to meet both increasing power needs and air quality improvement. In this study, five future power development scenarios in 2030 were considered. The REF scenario is the base case in which the growth was assumed to follow the existing projection (business as usual). The CAP scenario represents power sector in the trajectory to achieve 80% reduction by 2050 as proposed by IPCC, the LOW scenario reflects low cost of renewable to foster wind and solar development, the PEAK scenario allows China to peak its carbon emission by 2030, while the WEST scenario assumes that the coal power bases build all planned capacity by 2030 and no coal power in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai by 2030. Then, impacts of the scenarios on air quality were simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in January and August 2030 with unchanged emissions from other sectors and the same meteorology in 2013. The results indicate that air quality gets worse in the REF scenario in both months compared to 2013. The CAP and WEST scenarios generally have larger impacts on pollutant concentrations than the LOW and PEAK scenarios. The four scenarios improve PM2.5 total mass and SO42− in North China, with maximum decreases of over 100μgm−3 in January and over 10μgm−3 in August in the Hohhot area. However, PM2.5 total mass and SO42− pollution are worsened in Shandong for CAP and WEST scenarios and in Chongqing for LOW and PEAK scenarios. NO3− and O3 get worsened in the four scenarios in large areas of the North China Plain (NCP), East and South China due to more NH3 available for NO3− formation associated with reduction in SO42− and aerosol radiative effects on UV radiation for O3 formation. Power development plans greatly affect air quality in Beijing, with decrease in PM2.5 and PM10, but increase in O3. Reducing NOx and SO2 combined with NH3 should be considered to reduce contribution of power generation to future air pollution in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Jianlin & Huang, Lin & Chen, Mindong & He, Gang & Zhang, Hongliang, 2017. "Impacts of power generation on air quality in China—Part II: Future scenarios," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 115-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:121:y:2017:i:c:p:115-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344916300957
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue, Li, 2012. "Dynamics of clean coal-fired power generation development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 138-142.
    2. He, Gang & Kammen, Daniel M., 2016. "Where, when and how much solar is available? A provincial-scale solar resource assessment for China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 74-82.
    3. He, Gang & Kammen, Daniel M., 2014. "Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-122.
    4. Ru-Jin Huang & Yanlin Zhang & Carlo Bozzetti & Kin-Fai Ho & Jun-Ji Cao & Yongming Han & Kaspar R. Daellenbach & Jay G. Slowik & Stephen M. Platt & Francesco Canonaco & Peter Zotter & Robert Wolf & Sim, 2014. "High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7521), pages 218-222, October.
    5. Dabo Guan & Stephan Klasen & Klaus Hubacek & Kuishuang Feng & Zhu Liu & Kebin He & Yong Geng & Qiang Zhang, 2014. "Determinants of stagnating carbon intensity in China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1017-1023, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Gang & Zhang, Hongliang & Xu, Yuan & Lu, Xi, 2017. "China’s clean power transition: Current status and future prospect," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 3-10.
    2. Bruno Franco & Lieven Clarisse & Martin Van Damme & Juliette Hadji-Lazaro & Cathy Clerbaux & Pierre-François Coheur, 2022. "Ethylene industrial emitters seen from space," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Mark D. Rodgers & David W. Coit & Frank A. Felder & Annmarie G. Carlton, 2019. "A Metamodeling Framework for Quantifying Health Damages of Power Grid Expansion Plans," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Hailiang & Andresen, Gorm Bruun & Greiner, Martin, 2018. "Cost-optimal design of a simplified highly renewable Chinese electricity network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 534-546.
    2. Tan, Qinliang & Han, Jian & Liu, Yuan, 2023. "Examining the synergistic diffusion process of carbon capture and renewable energy generation technologies under market environment: A multi-agent simulation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    3. Hongli Liu & Xiaoyu Yan & Jinhua Cheng & Jun Zhang & Yan Bu, 2021. "Driving Factors for the Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Technical Efficiency of China’s New Energy Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Jiang, Suqin & Chen, Zun & Shan, Li & Chen, Xinyu & Wang, Haikun, 2017. "Committed CO2 emissions of China's coal-fired power generators from 1993 to 2013," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 295-302.
    5. Chen, Huadong & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Jianhui, 2018. "Simulating the impact of investment preference on low-carbon transition in power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 440-455.
    6. Gosens, Jorrit, 2017. "Natural resource endowment is not a strong driver of wind or PV development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1007-1018.
    7. Liu, Xi & Du, Huibin & Brown, Marilyn A. & Zuo, Jian & Zhang, Ning & Rong, Qian & Mao, Guozhu, 2018. "Low-carbon technology diffusion in the decarbonization of the power sector: Policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 344-356.
    8. Wang, Ni & Verzijlbergh, Remco A. & Heijnen, Petra W. & Herder, Paulien M., 2020. "A spatially explicit planning approach for power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    9. Xun Zhang & Yuehui Ma & Bin Ye & Zhang-Ming Chen & Ling Xiong, 2016. "Feasibility Analyses of Developing Low Carbon City with Hybrid Energy Systems in China: The Case of Shenzhen," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Liu, Laibao & Wang, Zheng & Wang, Yang & Wang, Jun & Chang, Rui & He, Gang & Tang, Wenjun & Gao, Ziqi & Li, Jiangtao & Liu, Changyi & Zhao, Lin & Qin, Dahe & Li, Shuangcheng, 2020. "Optimizing wind/solar combinations at finer scales to mitigate renewable energy variability in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Zhang, Xiaodong & Patino-Echeverri, Dalia & Li, Mingquan & Wu, Libo, 2022. "A review of publicly available data sources for models to study renewables integration in China's power system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Zhang, Ning & Hu, Zhaoguang & Shen, Bo & He, Gang & Zheng, Yanan, 2017. "An integrated source-grid-load planning model at the macro level: Case study for China's power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-246.
    13. Liao, Shiwu & Yao, Wei & Han, Xingning & Wen, Jinyu & Cheng, Shijie, 2017. "Chronological operation simulation framework for regional power system under high penetration of renewable energy using meteorological data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 816-828.
    14. Lugovoy, Oleg & Gao, Shuo & Gao, Ji & Jiang, Kejun, 2021. "Feasibility study of China's electric power sector transition to zero emissions by 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    15. Deshmukh, Ranjit & Wu, Grace C. & Callaway, Duncan S. & Phadke, Amol, 2019. "Geospatial and techno-economic analysis of wind and solar resources in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 947-960.
    16. Min He & Pei Liu & Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Xu Li & Shizhong Song & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2018. "A Systems Analysis of the Development Status and Trends of Rural Household Energy in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, July.
    17. He, Gang & Zhang, Hongliang & Xu, Yuan & Lu, Xi, 2017. "China’s clean power transition: Current status and future prospect," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 3-10.
    18. Hui, Jingxuan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Ye, Minhua, 2017. "Analyzing the penetration barriers of clean generation technologies in China’s power sector using a multi-region optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1809-1820.
    19. Huang, Lin & Hu, Jianlin & Chen, Mindong & Zhang, Hongliang, 2017. "Impacts of power generation on air quality in China—part I: An overview," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 103-114.
    20. Demetriou, E. & Hadjistassou, C., 2021. "Can China decarbonize its electricity sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:121:y:2017:i:c:p:115-127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kai Meng (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/resources-conservation-and-recycling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.