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Determinants of stagnating carbon intensity in China

Author

Listed:
  • Dabo Guan

    (Tsinghua-Leeds Joint Low Carbon City Research Programme, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    School of International Development, University of East Anglia)

  • Stephan Klasen

    (University of Göttingen)

  • Klaus Hubacek

    (University of Maryland)

  • Kuishuang Feng

    (University of Maryland)

  • Zhu Liu

    (Sustainability Science Program and Energy Technology Innovation Policy Project, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)

  • Kebin He

    (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University)

  • Yong Geng

    (School of Environmental Science and Technology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Qiang Zhang

    (Tsinghua-Leeds Joint Low Carbon City Research Programme, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University)

Abstract

China committed itself to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy (the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of GDP) by 40–45% during 2005–2020. Yet, between 2002 and 2009, China experienced a 3% increase in carbon intensity, though trends differed greatly among its 30 provinces. Decomposition analysis shows that sectoral efficiency gains in nearly all provinces were offset by movement towards a more carbon-intensive economic structure. Such a sectoral shift seemed to be heavily affected by the growing role of investments and capital accumulation in China’s growth process which has favoured sectors with high carbon intensity. Panel data regressions show that changes in carbon intensity were smallest in sectors dominating the regional economy (so as not to endanger these large sectors, which are the mainstay of the provincial economy), whereas scale and convergence effects played a much smaller role.

Suggested Citation

  • Dabo Guan & Stephan Klasen & Klaus Hubacek & Kuishuang Feng & Zhu Liu & Kebin He & Yong Geng & Qiang Zhang, 2014. "Determinants of stagnating carbon intensity in China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1017-1023, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:11:d:10.1038_nclimate2388
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2388
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