IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/recore/v118y2017icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of urban residential end-use water demands by integrating known and unknown water demand drivers at multiple scales II: Model application and validation

Author

Listed:
  • Rathnayaka, K.
  • Malano, H.
  • Arora, M.
  • George, B.
  • Maheepala, S.
  • Nawarathna, B.

Abstract

Detailed prediction of end-use water demand at multiple spatial and temporal scales is essential for planning urban water supply using multiple water sources based on fit-for-purpose criteria. This paper presents the application of a stochastic model to predict urban residential end-use water demands at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The model includes an improved representation of spatial and temporal variability of urban residential water use by considering the effect of a significant number of water demand drivers such as household size, dwelling type, appliance efficiency, availability of water end-uses/appliances at dwellings, presence of children, presence of people at home, diurnal behavioral patterns and temperature. A stochastic approach is used to describe the variability of residential water demand that is not captured by these known explanatory variables. The model is validated against quarterly meter readings and hourly water use data. The validation of household water demand at a quarterly scale with billing data shows Correlation coefficients (R2) ranging between 90% and 96% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients ranging between 0.70 and 0.92 for the four seasons analyzed which, verifies the predictive capacity of the model. The model validation also demonstrates the statistical stability of the selected probability distributions used in modeling the unexplained behavior of urban residential water consumers. The hourly scale validation also demonstrates a satisfactory predictive capacity in predicting household water demand. This also evidences the effectiveness of the modeling approach to predict urban residential water demand at multiple temporal scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Rathnayaka, K. & Malano, H. & Arora, M. & George, B. & Maheepala, S. & Nawarathna, B., 2017. "Prediction of urban residential end-use water demands by integrating known and unknown water demand drivers at multiple scales II: Model application and validation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.11.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344916303317
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.11.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garcia-Cuerva, Laura & Berglund, Emily Z. & Binder, Andrew R., 2016. "Public perceptions of water shortages, conservation behaviors, and support for water reuse in the U.S," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 106-115.
    2. Rathnayaka, K. & Maheepala, S. & Nawarathna, B. & George, B. & Malano, H. & Arora, M. & Roberts, P., 2014. "Factors affecting the variability of household water use in Melbourne, Australia," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 85-94.
    3. Makki, Anas A. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Beal, Cara D. & Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak, 2015. "Novel bottom-up urban water demand forecasting model: Revealing the determinants, drivers and predictors of residential indoor end-use consumption," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 15-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peterson, Eric Laurentius, 2016. "Transcontinental assessment of secure rainwater harvesting systems across Australia," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 33-47.
    2. Rathnayaka, K. & Malano, H. & Arora, M. & George, B. & Maheepala, S. & Nawarathna, B., 2017. "Prediction of urban residential end-use water demands by integrating known and unknown water demand drivers at multiple scales I: Model development," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 85-92.
    3. Wang, Yutao & Sun, Mingxing & Song, Baimin, 2017. "Public perceptions of and willingness to pay for sponge city initiatives in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 11-20.
    4. Icaro Yuri Pereira Dias & Lira Luz Benites Lazaro & Virginia Grace Barros, 2023. "Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus—Estimating Future Water Demand Scenarios Based on Nexus Thinking: The Watershed as a Territory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Chen, Zhuo & Wu, Qianyuan & Wu, Guangxue & Hu, Hong-Ying, 2017. "Centralized water reuse system with multiple applications in urban areas: Lessons from China’s experience," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 125-136.
    6. Tiantian Gu & Enyang Hao & Lan Ma & Xu Liu & Linxiu Wang, 2022. "Exploring the Determinants of Residents’ Behavior towards Participating in the Sponge-Style Old Community Renewal of China: Extending the Theory of Planned Behavior," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, July.
    7. DiCarlo, Morgan & Berglund, Emily Zechman & Kaza, Nikhil & Grieshop, Andrew & Shealy, Luke & Behr, Adam, 2023. "Customer complaint management and smart technology adoption by community water systems," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Silva, Juliano Rezende Mudadu & de Oliveira Celeri, Maurício & Borges, Alisson Carraro & Fernandes, Raphael Bragança Alves, 2023. "Greywater as a water resource in agriculture: The acceptance and perception from Brazilian agricultural technicians," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    9. Shimza Bint Aslam & Nimra Amar, 2023. "Household Water Conservation in Pakistan: An Examination of Strategies, Behaviors and Determinants," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 5(3), pages 181-189.
    10. Liu, Ariane & Giurco, Damien & Mukheibir, Pierre, 2015. "Motivating metrics for household water-use feedback," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-46.
    11. Elena Andrade & Gloria Seoane & Sergio Vila-Tojo & Cristina Gómez-Román & Jose-Manuel Sabucedo, 2021. "Psychological and Situational Variables Associated with Objective Knowledge on Water-Related Issues in a Northern Spanish City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Tamaryn Menneer & Zening Qi & Timothy Taylor & Cheryl Paterson & Gengyang Tu & Lewis R. Elliott & Karyn Morrissey & Markus Mueller, 2021. "Changes in Domestic Energy and Water Usage during the UK COVID-19 Lockdown Using High-Resolution Temporal Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-21, June.
    13. Roman Lyach & Jiří Remr, 2023. "Motivations of Households towards Conserving Water and Using Purified Water in Czechia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Zoe Gareiou & Christina Chroni & Karolos Kontoleon & Makram El Bachawati & Marianne Saba & Ruth Herrero Martin & Efthimios Zervas, 2022. "Awareness of Citizens for the Single-Use Plastics: Comparison between a High-Income and an Upper-Middle-Income Economy of the Easter Mediterranean Region, Greece and Lebanon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-35, February.
    15. Chunci Chen & Guizhen He & Yonglong Lu, 2022. "Payments for Watershed Ecosystem Services in the Eyes of the Public, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, August.
    16. Agnieszka Stec & Daniel Słyś, 2022. "Financial and Social Factors Influencing the Use of Unconventional Water Systems in Single-Family Houses in Eight European Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, January.
    17. Jelena Ristić Trajković & Verica Krstić & Aleksandra Milovanović & Cristina Sousa Coutinho Calheiros & Mirjana Ćujić & Milica Karanac & Jan K. Kazak & Sara Di Lonardo & Rocío Pineda-Martos & Mari Carm, 2024. "Moving Towards a Holistic Approach to Circular Cities: Obstacles and Perspectives for Implementation of Nature-Based Solutions in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.
    18. Geng, Jichao & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Li, Wenbo, 2017. "Exploring the motivation-behavior gap in urban residents’ green travel behavior: A theoretical and empirical study," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 282-292.
    19. Salas-Zapata, Walter & Hoyos-Medina, Lorena & Mejía-Durango, Diana, 2023. "Urban residential water and electricity consumption behavior: A systematic literature review," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Abubakar, Ismaila Rimi & Mu'azu, Nuhu Dalhat, 2022. "Household attitudes toward wastewater recycling in Saudi Arabia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:118:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kai Meng (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/resources-conservation-and-recycling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.