IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v96y2024ics1062976924000607.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposition of non-performing loans dynamics into a debt-servicing capacity and a risk taking indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago
  • Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando
  • Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo

Abstract

Using Colombian credit vintage data, we decompose non-performing loans into two main components: one capturing the evolution of borrowers’ payment capacity and another reflecting changes in the credit risk assumed by banks when granting loans. We employ intrinsic estimators and penalized regression techniques to address the perfect multicollinearity inherent in the model. Our analysis reveals that these two components have evolved differently over time and that they interact with the real and credit cycles distinctively. In particular, we find that a favorable economic environment and loose financial conditions improve the payment capacity of borrowers to meet their obligations, but coincide with increased risk-taking by financial institutions. Finally, we advocate for the adoption of this decomposition as a policy tool, easily applicable by financial and economic authorities with access to a continuous flow of credit vintage data. This methodology facilitates the identification of credit risk origins, thereby informing economic policies aimed at mitigating systemic financial risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo, 2024. "Decomposition of non-performing loans dynamics into a debt-servicing capacity and a risk taking indicators," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:96:y:2024:i:c:s1062976924000607
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924000607
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hao Wang & Anthony Bellotti & Rong Qu & Ruibin Bai, 2024. "Discrete-Time Survival Models with Neural Networks for Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Credit Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Wenjiang Fu, 2016. "Constrained Estimators and Consistency of a Regression Model on a Lexis Diagram," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(513), pages 180-199, March.
    4. Roland Beck & Petr Jakubik & Anamaria Piloiu, 2015. "Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 525-550, July.
    5. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
    6. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2023. "Why do Borrowers Default on Mortgages?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1001-1065.
    7. Hernando Vargas, Pamela Cardozo and Andrés Murcia, 2017. "The macroprudential policy framework in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 103-128, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Sarmiento, Miguel & Galán, Jorge E., 2017. "The influence of risk-taking on bank efficiency: Evidence from Colombia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 52-73.
    11. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    12. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441.
    13. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose & Souphala Chomsisengphet, 2008. "Determinants of automobile loan default and prepayment," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 32(Q III), pages 17-28.
    14. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    15. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    16. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    18. Cândida Ferreira, 2022. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Panel Data Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 133-153, November.
    19. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    20. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    21. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    22. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Non-performing loans and sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 301-314.
    23. Wilmar Cabrera & Javier Gutiérrez Rueda & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2012. "Credit Risk Stress Testing: An Exercise for Colombian Banks," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 073, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    24. Dimitrios, Anastasiou & Helen, Louri & Mike, Tsionas, 2016. "Determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from Euro-area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 116-119.
    25. Martha López & Fernando Tenjo & Hector Zárate, 2012. "The Risk-taking Channel in Colombia Revisited," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 276-295, June.
    26. Martin Ruckes, 2004. "Bank Competition and Credit Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1073-1102.
    27. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Rodrigo Alfaro & Natalia Gallardo, 2012. "The Determinants of Household Debt Default," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 55-70, April.
    29. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    30. Chaibi, Hasna & Ftiti, Zied, 2015. "Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-16.
    31. Breeden, Joseph L., 2016. "Incorporating lifecycle and environment in loan-level forecasts and stress tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 649-658.
    32. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2004. "Forecasting Retail Portfolio Credit Risk," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 16-32, February.
    33. Joseph L Breeden & Lyn Thomas, 2016. "Solutions to specification errors in stress testing models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(6), pages 830-840, June.
    34. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    35. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    36. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2020. "Non-performing loans in the euro area: Does bank market power matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    37. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    38. repec:uts:ppaper:2004:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santiago Gamba-Santamaria & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Camilo Orozco-Vanegas, 2021. "What can credit vintages tell us about non-performing loans?," Borradores de Economia 1154, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    3. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2021. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 160, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    5. Bogdan Florin FILIP, 2017. "Lessons From The Impact Of Internal And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Bad Loans In Cee Banks," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 198-212.
    6. Cicchiello, Antonella Francesca & Cotugno, Matteo & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2022. "Do capital buffers matter? Evidence from the stocks and flows of nonperforming loans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Haithem Awijen & Younes Ben Zaied & Ahmed Imran Hunjra, 2023. "Systematic and Unsystematic Determinants of Sectoral Risk Default Interconnectedness," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 561-587, August.
    8. Anju Goswami & Pooja Malik, 2024. "Identifying Financial Performance Drivers in the Indian Banking Sector During the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 667-719, September.
    9. Mariagrazia Fallanca & Antonio Fabio Forgione & Edoardo Otranto, 2021. "Do the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Have a Different Effect over Time? A Conditional Correlation Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    11. Teodor Hada & Nicoleta Bărbuță-Mișu & Iulia Cristina Iuga & Dorin Wainberg, 2020. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans of Romanian Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    12. MBelen Salas & Prosper Lamothe & Enrique Delgado & Angel L. Fernández-Miguélez & Lucia Valcarce, 2024. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans: A Global Data Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2695-2716, November.
    13. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    14. Mehmet Levent Erdas & Zeynep Ezanoglu, 2022. "How Do Bank-Specific Factors Impact Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from G20 Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 97-122.
    15. Ghosh, Saibal, 2019. "Loan delinquency in banking systems: How effective are credit reporting systems?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 220-236.
    16. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    17. Laxmi Koju & Ram Koju & Shouyang Wang, 2018. "Does Banking Management Affect Credit Risk? Evidence from the Indian Banking System," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, July.
    18. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    19. Barra, Cristian & Ruggiero, Nazzareno, 2021. "Do microeconomic and macroeconomic factors influence Italian bank credit risk in different local markets? Evidence from cooperative and non-cooperative banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Vyshnevskyi, Iegor & Sohn, Wook, 2023. "Nonperforming loans and related lending: Evidence from Ukraine," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:96:y:2024:i:c:s1062976924000607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.