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Incorporating lifecycle and environment in loan-level forecasts and stress tests

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  • Breeden, Joseph L.

Abstract

The new FASB current expected credit loss (CECL) proposal, IASB’s IFRS 9, and regulatory stress testing all require that the industry move toward forecasting probabilities of future events, rather than simply rank-ordering loans. Even more importantly, effective loan pricing requires this same forward-looking, loan-level forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Breeden, Joseph L., 2016. "Incorporating lifecycle and environment in loan-level forecasts and stress tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 649-658.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:255:y:2016:i:2:p:649-658
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Crook & T. Bellotti, 2012. "Asset correlations for credit card defaults," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 87-95, January.
    2. Bradley Efron, 2002. "The two‐way proportional hazards model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 899-909, October.
    3. Schmid, Volker J. & Held, Leonhard, 2007. "Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i08).
    4. Joseph L Breeden & Lyn Thomas, 2016. "Solutions to specification errors in stress testing models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(6), pages 830-840, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Pla-Santamaria & Mila Bravo & Javier Reig-Mullor & Francisco Salas-Molina, 2021. "A multicriteria approach to manage credit risk under strict uncertainty," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(2), pages 494-523, July.
    2. Joseph L. Breeden & Eugenia Leonova, 2021. "Creating Unbiased Machine Learning Models by Design," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Wang, Zheqi & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2020. "Reducing estimation risk using a Bayesian posterior distribution approach: Application to stress testing mortgage loan default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 725-738.
    4. Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo, 2024. "Decomposition of non-performing loans dynamics into a debt-servicing capacity and a risk taking indicators," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Joseph L. Breeden, 2024. "An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Santiago Gamba-Santamaria & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Camilo Orozco-Vanegas, 2021. "What can credit vintages tell us about non-performing loans?," Borradores de Economia 1154, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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