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Why do Borrowers Default on Mortgages?

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  • Peter Ganong
  • Pascal Noel

Abstract

There are three prevailing theories of mortgage default: strategic default (driven by negative equity), cash flow default (driven by negative life events), and double-trigger default (where both negative triggers are necessary). It has been difficult to compare these theories in part because negative life events are measured with error. We address this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic-default motive. Our central finding is that only 6% of underwater defaults are caused exclusively by negative equity, an order of magnitude lower than previously thought. We then analyze the remaining defaults. We find that 70% are driven solely by negative life events (i.e., cash flow defaults), while 24% are driven by the interaction between negative life events and negative equity (i.e., double-trigger defaults). Together, the results provide a full decomposition of the theories underlying borrower default and suggest that negative life events play a central role.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2023. "Why do Borrowers Default on Mortgages?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1001-1065.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:2:p:1001-1065.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjac040
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    Cited by:

    1. Christa N. Gibbs & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Donghoon Lee & Scott Nelson & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Jialan Wang, 2024. "Consumer Credit Reporting Data," Staff Reports 1114, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Evan Herrnstadt & Byoung Hark Yoo, 2024. "The Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages: Working Paper 2024-04," Working Papers 60167, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Thiemo Fetzer & Benjamin Guin & Felipe Netto & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Insurers Monitor Shocks to Collateral: Micro Evidence from Mortgage-backed Securities," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_590, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Artavanis, Nikolaos & Spyridopoulos, Ioannis, 2023. "Determinants of strategic behavior: Evidence from a foreclosure moratorium," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Brian Jonghwan Lee, 2024. "Bankruptcy Lawyers and Credit Recovery," Working Papers 24-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Jan K. Brueckner & James N. Conklin & N. Edward Coulson & Moussa Diop, 2023. "Default Costs and Repayment of Underwater Mortgages," CESifo Working Paper Series 10755, CESifo.
    7. Francis Wong, 2024. "Taxing Homeowners Who Won’t Borrow," CESifo Working Paper Series 11185, CESifo.
    8. Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo, 2024. "Decomposition of non-performing loans dynamics into a debt-servicing capacity and a risk taking indicators," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

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