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Financial crises and economic growth

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  • Jarrow, Robert A.

Abstract

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky due to randomness in the firms’ production. Financial crises occur when output and liquid capital are insufficient to meet required loan payments and systemic defaults occur. In this model, a financial crisis caused by systemic defaults can shift the economy from an equilibrium with positive borrowing/lending to an equilibrium with no borrowing/lending. In this no-lending equilibrium, neither traditional fiscal or monetary policy tools are effective in increasing output. Fiscal and monetary policy can only increase the likelihood of the equilibrium evolving to a borrowing/lending equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarrow, Robert A., 2014. "Financial crises and economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 194-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:54:y:2014:i:2:p:194-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2013.12.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Hodula & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2022. "Finance, growth and (macro)prudential policy: European evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 537-571, May.
    2. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Silva, Rafael Bernardo da, 2018. "Effect of banking and macroeconomic variables on systemic risk: An application of ΔCOVAR for an emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 141-157.
    3. Thi Xuan Huong Tram & Nguyen Thi Thanh Hoai, 2021. "Effect of macroeconomic variables on systemic risk: Evidence from Vietnamese economy," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 217-228.
    4. Zhuo Jin, 2015. "Optimal Debt Ratio and Consumption Strategies in Financial Crisis," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1029-1050, September.
    5. Dina Chhorn, 2021. "Financial development, poverty, and human development in the Fintech age: a regional analysis of the Southeast Asian states," Post-Print hal-03572473, HAL.
    6. Diby Francois Kassi & Yao Li & Zhankui Dong, 2023. "The mitigating effect of governance quality on the finance‐renewable energy‐growth nexus: Some international evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 316-354, January.
    7. Zeeshan Atiq & M. Emranul Haque, 2015. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Financial Liberalization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 201, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Economic growth; Equilibrium; Stochastic production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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