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The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate

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  • P. A. Pintus
  • Y. Wen
  • X. Xing

Abstract

The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. We show that a Kiyotaki-Moore model accounts for both properties when interest-rate movements are driven, in a significant way, by self-fulfilling shocks that redistribute income away from lenders and to borrowers during booms. The credit-based nature of such self-fulfilling equilibria is shown to be essential: the dynamic correlation between current loanable funds rate and future aggregate economic activity depends critically on the property that the interest rate is state-contingent. Bayesian estimation of our benchmark DSGE model on US data shows that the model driven by redistribution shocks results in a better fit to the data than both standard RBC models and Kiyotaki-Moore type models with unique equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • P. A. Pintus & Y. Wen & X. Xing, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working papers 616, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:616
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing, 2019. "International credit markets and global business cycles," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 15(1), pages 53-75, March.
    2. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2022. "The inverted leading indicator property and redistribution effect of the interest rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Wei Dai & Mark Weder & Bo Zhang, 2020. "Animal Spirits, Financial Markets, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2053-2083, December.
    4. Patrick Pintus, 2017. "Why is the Interest Rate an Inverted Leading Indicator of Macroeconomic Activity in the United States?," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 49, october..
    5. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "The Shifts In Lead‐Lag Properties Of The U.S. Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 319-334, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous Collateral Constraints; State-Contingent Loan Repayment; Redistribution Shocks; Multiple Equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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