IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/proeco/v270y2024ics092552732400046x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk management through financial hedging in inventory systems with stochastic price processes

Author

Listed:
  • Canyakmaz, Caner
  • Özekici, Süleyman
  • Karaesmen, Fikri

Abstract

We consider the financial hedging problem of a firm whose operational cash flow from its inventory operation is affected by both price and demand uncertainties. We assume that selling prices and demand arrival process are governed by an exogenous continuous stochastic price process which is assumed to be correlated with prices of various products in financial markets. During the selling horizon, the firm dynamically invests in a financial portfolio of these products to manage its exposure to price and demand risks by observing the current inventory and price levels. We explore the problem in a minimum-variance framework where we look for the variance-minimizing financial hedge for a given operational policy and a martingale price process. The framework leads to explicit results for the optimal static and dynamic financial hedges in single-period problems with complicated within-period dynamics. We also obtain characterizations of optimal dynamic hedges for multi-period problems using dynamic programming. We explore the risk reduction effects of minimum-variance financial hedges through numerical examples and show that significant risk reductions may be possible by using the right hedge.

Suggested Citation

  • Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2024. "Risk management through financial hedging in inventory systems with stochastic price processes," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:270:y:2024:i:c:s092552732400046x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2024.109189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092552732400046X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijpe.2024.109189?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:inm:orijoo:v:5:y:2023:i:3:p:273-294 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Martin Schweizer, 1995. "Variance-Optimal Hedging in Discrete Time," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-32, February.
    3. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    4. Jiri Chod & Nils Rudi & Jan A. Van Mieghem, 2010. "Operational Flexibility and Financial Hedging: Complements or Substitutes?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 1030-1045, June.
    5. Louis Eeckhoudt & Christian Gollier & Harris Schlesinger, 1995. "The Risk-Averse (and Prudent) Newsboy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 786-794, May.
    6. Panos Kouvelis & Rong Li, 2019. "Integrated Risk Management for Newsvendors with Value-at-Risk Constraints," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 816-832, October.
    7. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    8. Secomandi, Nicola, 2022. "Quadratic hedging of risk neutral values," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2019. "An inventory model where customer demand is dependent on a stochastic price process," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 139-152.
    10. Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2022. "A newsvendor problem with markup pricing in the presence of within-period price fluctuations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 153-162.
    11. Zhao, Lima & Huchzermeier, Arnd, 2015. "Operations–finance interface models: A literature review and framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(3), pages 905-917.
    12. Mokrane Bouakiz & Matthew J. Sobel, 1992. "Inventory Control with an Exponential Utility Criterion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 603-608, June.
    13. Panos Kouvelis & Zhan Pang & Qing Ding, 2018. "Integrated Commodity Inventory Management and Financial Hedging: A Dynamic Mean†Variance Analysis," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 27(6), pages 1052-1073, June.
    14. Sayın, F. & Karaesmen, F. & Özekici, S., 2014. "Newsvendor model with random supply and financial hedging: Utility-based approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 178-189.
    15. Basil A. Kalymon, 1971. "Stochastic Prices in a Single-Item Inventory Purchasing Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(6), pages 1434-1458, October.
    16. Christian Mandl & Selvaprabu Nadarajah & Stefan Minner & Srinagesh Gavirneni, 2022. "Data‐driven storage operations: Cross‐commodity backtest and structured policies," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(6), pages 2438-2456, June.
    17. René Caldentey & Martin Haugh, 2006. "Optimal Control and Hedging of Operations in the Presence of Financial Markets," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 285-304, May.
    18. Xue, Weili & Ma, Lijun & Shen, Houcai, 2015. "Optimal inventory and hedging decisions with CVaR consideration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 70-82.
    19. Panos Kouvelis & Rong Li & Qing Ding, 2013. "Managing Storable Commodity Risks: The Role of Inventory and Financial Hedge," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 507-521, July.
    20. Ç Haksöz & S Seshadri, 2007. "Supply chain operations in the presence of a spot market: a review with discussion," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(11), pages 1412-1429, November.
    21. Liao Wang & David D. Yao, 2017. "Production with Risk Hedging—Optimal Policy and Efficient Frontier," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1095-1113, August.
    22. Vishal Gaur & Sridhar Seshadri, 2005. "Hedging Inventory Risk Through Market Instruments," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 103-120, April.
    23. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
    24. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap Keung & Wu, Feng & Sculli, Domenic & Shi, Yuan, 2012. "A multi-stage financial hedging approach for the procurement of manufacturing materials," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 424-431.
    25. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
    26. Nicola Secomandi, 2010. "Optimal Commodity Trading with a Capacitated Storage Asset," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 449-467, March.
    27. Ankur Goel & Fehmi Tanrisever, 2017. "Financial Hedging and Optimal Procurement Policies under Correlated Price and Demand," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 26(10), pages 1924-1945, October.
    28. Zhao, Lima & Huchzermeier, Arnd, 2017. "Integrated operational and financial hedging with capacity reshoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 557-570.
    29. Canyakmaz, Caner & Karaesmen, Fikri & Özekici, Süleyman, 2017. "Minimum-Variance Hedging for Managing Risks in Inventory Models with Price Fluctuations," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 11(1-2), pages 107-123, December.
    30. Ali Shantia & Sam Aflaki & Hamed Ghoddusi, 2019. "Input‐Price Risk Management: Technology Improvement and Financial Hedging," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(8), pages 2044-2067, August.
    31. Xin Chen & Melvyn Sim & David Simchi-Levi & Peng Sun, 2007. "Risk Aversion in Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 828-842, October.
    32. Dimitris Bertsimas & Leonid Kogan & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "Hedging Derivative Securities and Incomplete Markets: An (epsilon)-Arbitrage Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 372-397, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ying Li & Ying Cheng, 2024. "A Risk Management Strategy under Transfer Pricing for Multi-National Supply Chain along the Belt and Road Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-24, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiao Wang & Lima Zhao & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2021. "Operations‐Finance Interface in Risk Management: Research Evolution and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(2), pages 355-389, February.
    2. Wei Xing & Shanshan Ma & Xuan Zhao & Liming Liu, 2022. "Operational hedging or financial hedging? Strategic risk management in commodity procurement," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(8), pages 3233-3263, August.
    3. Alavi Fard, Farzad & He, Jian & Ivanov, Dmitry & Jie, Ferry, 2019. "A utility adjusted newsvendor model with stochastic demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 154-165.
    4. Niu, Baozhuang & Chu, Lap-Keung & Ni, Jian & Wang, Junwei, 2018. "Buy now and price later: Supply contracts with time-consistent mean–variance financial hedgingAuthor-Name: Li, Qiang," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(2), pages 582-595.
    5. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap Keung & Li, Qiang, 2017. "Capacity decisions with debt financing: The effects of agency problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 1158-1169.
    6. Liu, Zugang & Wang, Jia, 2019. "Supply chain network equilibrium with strategic financial hedging using futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 962-978.
    7. Anna Maria Gambaro & Nicola Secomandi, 2021. "A Discussion of Non‐Gaussian Price Processes for Energy and Commodity Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-67, January.
    8. Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2019. "An inventory model where customer demand is dependent on a stochastic price process," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 139-152.
    9. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2011. "Optimal Inventory Policies when Purchase Price and Demand Are Stochastic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 109-124, February.
    10. Sayın, F. & Karaesmen, F. & Özekici, S., 2014. "Newsvendor model with random supply and financial hedging: Utility-based approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 178-189.
    11. Rettinger, Moritz & Mandl, Christian & Minner, Stefan, 2024. "A data-driven approach for optimal operational and financial commodity hedging," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 341-360.
    12. Jian Ni & Lap Keung Chu & Shoude Li, 2018. "Financial hedging and competitive strategy for value-maximizing firms under quantity competition," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 264(1), pages 391-407, May.
    13. Liao Wang & David D. Yao, 2021. "Risk Hedging for Production Planning," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(6), pages 1825-1837, June.
    14. Ni, Jian & Chu, Lap-Keung & Yen, Benjamin P.C., 2016. "Coordinating operational policy with financial hedging for risk-averse firms," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB), pages 279-289.
    15. Bolandifar, Ehsan & Chen, Zhong, 2020. "Hedging through index-based price contracts in commodity-based supply chains," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Liao Wang & Jin Yao & Xiaowei Zhang, 2022. "How Does Risk Hedging Impact Operations? Insights from a Price-Setting Newsvendor Model," Papers 2201.01026, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    17. Jiri Chod & Nils Rudi & Jan A. Van Mieghem, 2010. "Operational Flexibility and Financial Hedging: Complements or Substitutes?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 1030-1045, June.
    18. Gürel, Yücel & Güllü, Refik, 2019. "Effect of a secondary market on a system with random demand and uncertain costs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 112-120.
    19. Chang, Shuhua & Li, Jiajing & Sethi, Suresh P. & Wang, Xinyu, 2024. "Risk hedging for VaR-constrained newsvendors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    20. Wang, Moran & Guo, Xiaolong & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Financial hedging in two-stage sustainable commodity supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 803-818.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:270:y:2024:i:c:s092552732400046x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.