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The bullwhip effect in capacitated supply chains with consideration for product life-cycle aspects

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  • Nepal, Bimal
  • Murat, Alper
  • Babu Chinnam, Ratna

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the bullwhip effect and net-stock amplification in a three-echelon supply chain considering step-changes in the production rates during a product's life-cycle demand. The analysis is focused around highly complex and engineered products (e.g., automobiles), that have relatively long production life-cycles and require significant capital investment in manufacturing. Using a simulation approach, we analyze three stages of the product life-cycle including low volumes during product introduction, peak demand, and eventual decline toward the end of the life-cycle. Parts of the simulation model have been adopted by a major North-American automotive OEM as part of a scenario analysis tool for strategic supply network design and analysis. The simulation results show that performance of a system as a whole deteriorates when there is a step-change in the life-cycle demand. While restriction in production capacity does not significantly impact the bullwhip effect, it increases the net stock amplification significantly for the supply chain setting under consideration. Furthermore, a number of important managerial insights are presented based on sensitivity analysis of interaction effect of capacity constraints with other supply chain parameters.

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  • Nepal, Bimal & Murat, Alper & Babu Chinnam, Ratna, 2012. "The bullwhip effect in capacitated supply chains with consideration for product life-cycle aspects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 318-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:136:y:2012:i:2:p:318-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2011.12.018
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    3. Dai, Hongyan & Li, Jianbin & Yan, Nina & Zhou, Weihua, 2016. "Bullwhip effect and supply chain costs with low- and high-quality information on inventory shrinkage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 457-469.
    4. K. Devika & A. Jafarian & A. Hassanzadeh & R. Khodaverdi, 2016. "Optimizing of bullwhip effect and net stock amplification in three-echelon supply chains using evolutionary multi-objective metaheuristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 242(2), pages 457-487, July.
    5. Dominguez, Roberto & Cannella, Salvatore & Framinan, Jose M., 2015. "On returns and network configuration in supply chain dynamics," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-167.
    6. Cannella, Salvatore & Dominguez, Roberto & Ponte, Borja & Framinan, Jose M., 2018. "Capacity restrictions and supply chain performance: Modelling and analysing load-dependent lead times," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 264-277.
    7. Junhai Ma & Xiaogang Ma, 2017. "Measure of the bullwhip effect considering the market competition between two retailers," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 313-326, January.

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