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Political influence, central bank independence and inflation in Africa: A comparative analysis

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  • Strong, Christine Olivia

Abstract

This paper develops a new de facto measure of central bank independence (CBI) based on two recent measures of the turnover rates of central bank governors introduced by Vuletin and Zhu (2011), complemented with measures of alliance with the government in power, captured by prior executive appointment, tribe proximity, and political party affiliation. Using 1980–2009 data from 13 countries from the CFA zone (a currency union) and 18 non-CFA countries, the new index is used to 1) examine whether CBI can help achieve price stability in Africa and 2) show how CBI affects African countries that are part of a monetary union. We find that higher turnover rates lead to higher inflation. Our results are robust to the decomposition of the turnover rates into premature removals and ally replacements. Furthermore, we find that for CFA zone countries, central bank autonomy has no effect on inflation and instead inflation is driven by other variables such as the fixed exchange rate regime or commodity price shocks.

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  • Strong, Christine Olivia, 2021. "Political influence, central bank independence and inflation in Africa: A comparative analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0176268021000057
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102004
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    3. Christine Strong, 2024. "What type of central banker dampens the political business cycle? The case of Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1920-1946, April.
    4. Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako & Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor & Abel Mawuko Agoba & Festus Turkson & Emmanuel Abbey, 2022. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Poverty in Africa," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 211-236, June.
    5. Strong, Christine & Yayi, Constant L., 2024. "Do central bankers' characteristics matter for Africa? Ethnic favoritism, fractionalization, and inflation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Strong, Christine & Yayi, Constant L., 2023. "The political affiliation of central bankers and government debt: Evidence from Africa," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 603-620.
    8. Osvald Vasicek & Natalie Uhrova & Lenka Dimitriou Janickova & Tomas Wroblowsky & Boris Navratil, 2023. "Central Bank Independence: Where Do We Stand?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank independence; Currency union; Turnover rate; Inflation; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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