IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v648y2024ics0378437124004564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mechanisms of investors’ bounded rationality and market herding effect by the stochastic Ising financial model

Author

Listed:
  • Lan, Yun
  • Fang, Wen

Abstract

The widespread herding effect prevalent in China’s stock market is caused by investors’ bounded rationality behavior. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. This article aims to use the stochastic Ising financial model, which explains this problem from the perspective of Econophysics. The probability density function and power-law distribution of return data simulated by the stochastic Ising financial model show sharp peaks and fat tails, similar to the stylized facts of real Chinese stock market data. Further, we use this financial model to simulate herding behavior in the market. The results show that when the degree of investor irrationality (represented by β) increases, the Herd Effect Index (HERDI) also rises. When β exceeds a critical point, the HERDI index fluctuates more violently. Through empirical analysis, we find that there is an interactive relationship between investors’ bounded rational behavior and market herding effects, and this model can effectively explain these two phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Lan, Yun & Fang, Wen, 2024. "Mechanisms of investors’ bounded rationality and market herding effect by the stochastic Ising financial model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 648(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:648:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124004564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2024.129947
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437124004564
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2024.129947?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. da Gama Silva, Paulo Vitor Jordão & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & Gomes, Leonardo Lima, 2019. "Herding behavior and contagion in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 41-50.
    2. Kaufman, Miron & Diep, Hung T. & Kaufman, Sanda, 2019. "Sociophysics of intractable conflicts: Three-group dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 175-187.
    3. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    4. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    5. Krishnadas M. & K. P. Harikrishnan & G. Ambika, 2022. "Recurrence measures and transitions in stock market dynamics," Papers 2208.03456, arXiv.org.
    6. Diep, Hung T. & Desgranges, Gabriel, 2021. "Dynamics of the price behavior in stock markets: A statistical physics approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    7. K. Sznajd-Weron & R. Weron, 2002. "A Simple Model Of Price Formation," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(01), pages 115-123.
    8. Kukacka, Jiri & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2021. "Does parameterization affect the complexity of agent-based models?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 324-356.
    9. Takahashi, Taiki & Hadzibeganovic, Tarik & Cannas, Sergio & Makino, Takaki & Fukui, Hiroki & Kitayama, Shinobu, 2009. "Cultural neuroeconomics of intertemporal choice," MPRA Paper 16814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Robert J. Bloomfield & William B. Tayler & Flora (Hailan) Zhou, 2009. "Momentum, Reversal, and Uninformed Traders in Laboratory Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2535-2558, December.
    11. Lima, L.S., 2017. "Modeling of the financial market using the two-dimensional anisotropic Ising model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 544-551.
    12. Fang, Wen & Ke, Jinchuan & Wang, Jun & Feng, Ling, 2016. "Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 531-542.
    13. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    14. Orlean, Andre, 1995. "Bayesian interactions and collective dynamics of opinion: Herd behavior and mimetic contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 257-274, October.
    15. Zheng, Dazhi & Li, Huimin & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2015. "Herding behavior in institutional investors: Evidence from China’s stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 59-76.
    16. Kaizoji, Taisei & Bornholdt, Stefan & Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2002. "Dynamics of price and trading volume in a spin model of stock markets with heterogeneous agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 441-452.
    17. W.-X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2007. "Self-organizing Ising model of financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 175-181, January.
    18. Zhou, Qi & Sun, Shaolong & Liu, Qian, 2019. "The capital flow of stock market studies based on epidemic model with double delays," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 526(C).
    19. Wen Fang & Jun Wang, 2012. "Statistical Properties And Multifractal Behaviors Of Market Returns By Ising Dynamic Systems," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(03), pages 1-14.
    20. Schinckus, Christophe, 2018. "Ising model, econophysics and analogies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 95-103.
    21. Yang, Wan-Ru & Chuang, Ming-Che, 2023. "Do investors herd in a volatile market? Evidence of dynamic herding in Taiwan, China, and US stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    22. Kukacka, Jiri & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Do ‘complex’ financial models really lead to complex dynamics? Agent-based models and multifractality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    23. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    24. B. M. Roehner & D. Sornette, 2000. ""Thermometers" of Speculative Frenzy," Papers cond-mat/0001353, arXiv.org.
    25. Stefan Bornholdt, 2001. "Expectation Bubbles In A Spin Model Of Markets: Intermittency From Frustration Across Scales," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(05), pages 667-674.
    26. Westphal, Rebecca & Sornette, Didier, 2020. "Market impact and performance of arbitrageurs of financial bubbles in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-23.
    27. Diep, H.T. & Kaufman, Miron & Kaufman, Sanda, 2017. "Dynamics of two-group conflicts: A statistical physics model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 183-199.
    28. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2003. "A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations," Nature, Nature, vol. 423(6937), pages 267-270, May.
    29. Zhu, Min, 2018. "Informative fund size, managerial skill, and investor rationality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 114-134.
    30. Bornholdt, Stefan, 2022. "A q-spin Potts model of markets: Gain–loss asymmetry in stock indices as an emergent phenomenon," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quanbo Zha & Gang Kou & Hengjie Zhang & Haiming Liang & Xia Chen & Cong-Cong Li & Yucheng Dong, 2020. "Opinion dynamics in finance and business: a literature review and research opportunities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Zhong, Li-Xin & Xu, Wen-Juan & Chen, Rong-Da & Zhong, Chen-Yang & Qiu, Tian & Ren, Fei & He, Yun-Xing, 2018. "Self-reinforcing feedback loop in financial markets with coupling of market impact and momentum traders," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 301-310.
    4. Zubillaga, Bernardo J. & Vilela, André L.M. & Wang, Chao & Nelson, Kenric P. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2022. "A three-state opinion formation model for financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    5. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    6. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    7. Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei & Ma, Yuyin, 2021. "Herding in Open-end Funds: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Liu, Tengdong & Zheng, Dazhi & Zheng, Suyan & Lu, Yang, 2023. "Herding in Chinese stock markets: Evidence from the dual-investor-group," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Jia, Boxiang & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Extreme sentiment and herding: Evidence from the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Costa, Filipe & Fortuna, Natércia & Lobão, Júlio, 2024. "Herding states and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Ren, Boru & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Herding in the Chinese renewable energy market: Evidence from a bootstrapping time-varying coefficient autoregressive model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    12. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre & Salmon, Mark, 2021. "Beta herding through overconfidence: A behavioral explanation of the low-beta anomaly," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    14. L. L. B. Miranda & L. S. Lima, 2024. "Singular Stochastic Differential Equations for Time Evolution of Stocks Within Non-white Noise Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2685-2694, November.
    15. N Blasco & P Corredor & S Ferreruela, 2011. "Detecting intentional herding: what lies beneath intraday data in the Spanish stock market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1056-1066, June.
    16. Yarovaya, Larisa & Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2021. "The effects of a “black swan” event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Dina Gabbori & Nader Virk & Nadeem Aftab & Basel Awartani, 2024. "The impact of Islamic events on herding behaviour in Saudi Arabian equities market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 119-134, January.
    18. Zhao, Yuan & Liu, Nan & Li, Wanpeng, 2022. "Industry herding in crypto assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    20. S S S Kumar, 2022. "Institutional Herding: Causality and Persistence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 183-194, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:648:y:2024:i:c:s0378437124004564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.