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Momentum, Reversal, and Uninformed Traders in Laboratory Markets

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  • ROBERT J. BLOOMFIELD
  • WILLIAM B. TAYLER
  • FLORA (HAILAN) ZHOU

Abstract

We report the results of three experiments based on the model of Hong and Stein (1999). Consistent with the model, the results show that when informed traders do not observe prices, uninformed traders generate long‐term price reversals by engaging in momentum trade. However, when informed traders also observe prices, uninformed traders generate reversals by engaging in contrarian trading. The results suggest that a dominated information set is sufficient to account for the contrarian behavior observed among individual investors, and that uninformed traders may be responsible for long‐term price reversals but play little role in driving short‐term momentum.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Bloomfield & William B. Tayler & Flora (Hailan) Zhou, 2009. "Momentum, Reversal, and Uninformed Traders in Laboratory Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2535-2558, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:64:y:2009:i:6:p:2535-2558
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01510.x
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    1. Harris, Ling & Majerczyk, Michael & Newman, Andrew H., 2018. "An examination of how the effort-inducing property of incentive compensation influences performance in multidimensional tasks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 185-196.
    2. Flori, Andrea & Regoli, Daniele, 2021. "Revealing Pairs-trading opportunities with long short-term memory networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 772-791.
    3. Yuming Fu & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 977-1007, December.
    4. Lu, Tsung-Hsun, 2014. "The profitability of candlestick charting in the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 65-78.
    5. Muehlfeld, Katrin & Weitzel, Utz & van Witteloostuijn, Arjen, 2013. "Fight or freeze? Individual differences in investors’ motivational systems and trading in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 195-209.
    6. Chen, Yifan & Zhao, Huainan, 2012. "Informed trading, information uncertainty, and price momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2095-2109.
    7. Zhong, Li-Xin & Xu, Wen-Juan & Chen, Rong-Da & Zhong, Chen-Yang & Qiu, Tian & Ren, Fei & He, Yun-Xing, 2018. "Self-reinforcing feedback loop in financial markets with coupling of market impact and momentum traders," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 301-310.
    8. Cioroianu, Iulia & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2021. "The differential impact of corporate blockchain-development as conditioned by sentiment and financial desperation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Vasios, Michalis & Payne, Richard & Nolte, Ingmar, 2015. "Profiting from Mimicking Strategies in Non-Anonymous Markets," MPRA Paper 61710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. W. Brooke Elliott & Susan D. Krische & Mark E. Peecher, 2010. "Expected Mispricing: The Joint Influence of Accounting Transparency and Investor Base," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 343-381, May.
    11. Raul Leote de Carvalho & Xiao Lu & Pierre Moulin, 2014. "An integrated risk-budgeting approach for multi-strategy equity portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(1), pages 24-47, February.
    12. Merl, Robert, 2022. "Literature review of experimental asset markets with insiders," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    13. Bao, Wei & Guo, Shijun & Peng, Diefeng & Rao, Yulei, 2023. "Trading gap in holidays and price transmission: Evidence from cross-listed stocks on the A-share and H-share markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    14. Lin, Shengle & Rassenti, Stephen, 2012. "Are under- and over-reaction the same matter? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 39-61.
    15. Hung-Wen Lin & Kun-Ben Lin & Jing-Bo Huang & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Timely Loss Recognition Helps Nothing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    16. Deng, Kuang Kuang & Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Tse, Kwok Sang, 2022. "Do real estate investors trade on momentum?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. J. Christopher Westland, 2023. "Determinants of liquidity in cryptocurrency markets," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 261-293, June.
    18. Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2015. "Combining momentum with reversal in commodity futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-444.
    19. Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
    20. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Cao, Jiawei, 2024. "Seemingly manipulated anomaly: Evidence from corporate site visits," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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