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The effect of quarantine measures for close contacts on the transmission of emerging infectious diseases with infectivity in incubation period

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  • Pan, QiuHui
  • Song, Sha
  • He, MingFeng

Abstract

For emerging infectious disease with infectivity in incubation period, this paper studies the effect of quarantine measures for close contacts on the transmission of emerging infectious disease with the help of the differential equation model. The results show that as long as measures where close contacts are quarantined are taken, when to take measures is a very important factor. Under a given quarantine intensity, there is a phase transition structure about the start time of taking measures. Only when the start time of taking measure is earlier than the first critical moment of phase transition, the final cumulative number of patients and deaths can be stabilized in low level, so as to control the spread of epidemics. At the same time, whenever quarantine measures are taken, even if the quarantine intensity is not strong enough, the peak value of existing infectious individuals will decrease and the duration when the number of existing infectious individuals is high will be shortened, and the final cumulative number of patients and deaths will be significantly reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, QiuHui & Song, Sha & He, MingFeng, 2021. "The effect of quarantine measures for close contacts on the transmission of emerging infectious diseases with infectivity in incubation period," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:574:y:2021:i:c:s037843712100265x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toph Allen & Kris A. Murray & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Stephen S. Morse & Carlo Rondinini & Moreno Di Marco & Nathan Breit & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2017. "Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Lahrouz, Aadil & Omari, Lahcen, 2013. "Extinction and stationary distribution of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with non-linear incidence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(4), pages 960-968.
    3. Jang, Junyoung & Kwon, Hee-Dae & Lee, Jeehyun, 2020. "Optimal control problem of an SIR reaction–diffusion model with inequality constraints," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 136-151.
    4. David M. Morens & Gregory K. Folkers & Anthony S. Fauci, 2004. "The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6996), pages 242-249, July.
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