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Backcasting and forecasting time series using detrended cross-correlation analysis

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  • Contreras-Reyes, Javier E.
  • Idrovo-Aguirre, Byron J.

Abstract

In this paper we addressed the problem of backcasting and forecasting non-stationary time series. Given that traditional backcasting are based on the classical cross-correlation function assuming two stationary time series, assumptions based on two non-stationary time series need a new approach. Thus, Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) provides a fanned estimator for a correlation between two non-stationary time series, providing then the stationary time series. Therefore, we developed a backcaster estimator and a predictor for the obtained stationary time series. The practical example of a Chilean cement production time series (1991–2015) illustrates our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Contreras-Reyes, Javier E. & Idrovo-Aguirre, Byron J., 2020. "Backcasting and forecasting time series using detrended cross-correlation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:560:y:2020:i:c:s0378437120305768
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2019. "Backcasting cement production and characterizing cement’s economic cycles for Chile 1991–2015," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1829-1852, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Ioana Iconaru & Manuela Mihaela Ciucurel & Luminita Georgescu & Mariana Tudor & Constantin Ciucurel, 2021. "The Applicability of the Poincaré Plot in the Analysis of Variability of Reaction Time during Serial Testing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "The Response of Housing Construction to a Copper Price Shock in Chile (2009–2020)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, June.
    3. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Monetary Fiscal Contributions to Households and Pension Fund Withdrawals during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Approximation of Their Impact on Construction Labor Supply in Chile," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-10, November.
    4. David Meintrup & Martina Nowak-Machen & Stefan Borgmann, 2021. "Nine Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: A Comparative Time Series Analysis of Cases and Fatalities in 35 Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Francisco J. Lozano & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, September.

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