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Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis

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  • Ben Omrane, Walid
  • Savaşer, Tanseli

Abstract

We investigate the volatility reaction to macroeconomic news in major currency markets during the recent global financial crisis. We first present an alternative method for determining the changes in economic states by endogenously estimating crisis thresholds. Second, we assess which macroeconomic indicator gave the earliest warning signal for the upcoming contraction. Third, we investigate whether there is a systematic change in the volatility reaction of exchange rates to news during the crisis period. We find that the estimated logistic transition function based on the housing starts data exhibits the earliest warning signal compared to other indicators. Our results suggest that although volatility response to most news indicators is larger in expansion, currency market reaction to new home sales and Fed funds rate news is larger in the crisis period. We attribute this finding to the context-specific relevance of the housing and credit sectors in the evolution of the global financial crisis.

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  • Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility response to macroeconomic news during the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2017.05.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Das, Deepan Kumar, 2024. "Macroeconomic news, senior officials' speeches, and emerging currency markets: An intraday analysis of price jump reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2019. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Ning, Ye & Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming, 2018. "The multifractal properties of Euro and Pound exchange rates and comparisons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 578-587.
    4. Abraham Oketooyin Gbadebo, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility: The Nigeria experience," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 43-62.
    5. Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Ben Omrane, Walid, 2021. "The effect of US macroeconomic news announcements on the Canadian stock market: Evidence using high-frequency data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    6. Walid Ben Omrane & Robert Welch & Xinyao Zhou, 2020. "The dynamic effect of macroeconomic news on the euro/US dollar exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 84-103, January.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Ulm, M. & Hambuckers, J., 2022. "Do interest rate differentials drive the volatility of exchange rates? Evidence from an extended stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 125-148.
    9. Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Ben Omrane, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis, 2020. "US macroeconomic news effects around the US and European financial crises: Evidence from Brazilian and Mexican equity indices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    10. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Wang, Jiayu & Welch, Robert, 2022. "Senior official speech attributes and foreign exchange risk around business cycles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Ben Omrane, Walid & Tao, Yusi & Welch, Robert, 2017. "Scheduled macro-news effects on a Euro/US dollar limit order book around the 2008 financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-30.
    12. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    13. Anwer, Zaheer & Khan, Ashraf & Kabir Hassan, M. & Rashid, Mamunur, 2022. "Does the regional proximity lead to exchange rate spillover?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Wan Wei & Susan Pozo & Evan Lau, 2021. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on exchange rate volatility," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1997425-199, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial crisis; Exchange rates; Volatility; Macroeconomic news; High-frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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