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Tampering with inflation data: A Benford law-based analysis of national statistics in Argentina

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  • Miranda-Zanetti, Maximilano
  • Delbianco, Fernando
  • Tohmé, Fernando

Abstract

There is a widespread consensus that the national statistics on inflation were manipulated by the Argentinean government from 2006 to 2015. The best known tool to run a forensic analysis of this claim is to check for the validity of Benford’s law in the data series. We find that indeed, the inflation for that period fails to satisfy this statistical regularity. We further compare this behavior to that of Argentina’s inflation series for the same period but recorded independently of the government; to that of the national records of 1943–2006, as well as to historical series of other countries. We find again that Argentina in 2006–2015 is the only one in our sample that can be singled out as candidate for statistical manipulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Miranda-Zanetti, Maximilano & Delbianco, Fernando & Tohmé, Fernando, 2019. "Tampering with inflation data: A Benford law-based analysis of national statistics in Argentina," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 761-770.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:525:y:2019:i:c:p:761-770
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernhard Rauch & Max Göttsche & Gernot Brähler & Stefan Engel, 2011. "Fact and Fiction in EU‐Governmental Economic Data," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 243-255, August.
    2. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 22103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 59-108.
    4. Carlos Dabús & Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti, 2016. "High Inflation, Price Stability and Hysteresis Effect: Evidence from Argentina," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 31(1), pages 59-73, April.
    5. Serena Ng, 2017. "Opportunities and Challenges: Lessons from Analyzing Terabytes of Scanner Data," NBER Working Papers 23673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(1 (Spring), pages 59-108.
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    Cited by:

    1. Azevedo, Caio da Silva & Gonçalves, Rodrigo Franco & Gava, Vagner Luiz & Spinola, Mauro de Mesquita, 2021. "A Benford’s Law based methodology for fraud detection in social welfare programs: Bolsa Familia analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    2. Herteliu, Claudiu & Jianu, Ionel & Dragan, Irina Maria & Apostu, Simona & Luchian, Iuliana, 2021. "Testing Benford’s Laws (non)conformity within disclosed companies’ financial statements among hospitality industry in Romania," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    3. Manuel de Mier & Fernando Delbianco, 2023. "Cu\'anto es demasiada inflaci\'on? Una clasificaci\'on de reg\'imenes inflacionarios," Papers 2401.02428, arXiv.org.
    4. De Mier Manuel, 2023. "¿Cuánto es demasiada inflación? Una clasificación de regímenes inflacionarios," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4640, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    5. Meller, Leandro & Larrosa, Juan M.C. & Delbianco, Fernando & Ramírez Muñoz de Toro, Gonzalo & Uriarte, Juan Ignacio, 2021. "Inflación semanal en galletitas: un enfoque de datos de panel. || Weekly Cookie Inflation: A Panel Data Approach," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 31(1), pages 417-440, June.
    6. Lee, Kang-Bok & Han, Sumin & Jeong, Yeasung, 2020. "COVID-19, flattening the curve, and Benford’s law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).

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