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New dynamics between volume and volatility

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  • Zheng, Zeyu
  • Gui, Jun
  • Qiao, Zhi
  • Fu, Yang
  • Stanley, H.Eugene
  • Li, Baowen

Abstract

Understanding, quantifying and predicting market fluctuation has become increasingly important in recent decades. Volatility and volume are the two commonly used quantities to study the market dynamics and the relationship between these two has been modeled and debated for years with several hypothesis been put forward. Using empirical data, we investigate the causality and correlation between volume and volatility and find new ways in which they interact, particularly when the levels of both are high. We find that the volume-conditional volatility distribution scales with volume as a power-law function with an exponential cutoff. We exploit the characteristics of a volume-volatility scatterplot and find a strong correlation between logarithmic volume and a quantity we define as local maximum volatility (LMV), the highest volatility observed in a given range of volume. This supports our empirical analysis, showing that volume is an effective parameter for prediction of the maximum value of volatility for both same-day and near-future time periods. The joint conditional probability of volume and volatility also indicates if we invoke both quantities, the prediction of the largest next-day volatility will be better than invoking either one alone. This approach is thus a greatly improved method of risk assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Zeyu & Gui, Jun & Qiao, Zhi & Fu, Yang & Stanley, H.Eugene & Li, Baowen, 2019. "New dynamics between volume and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1343-1350.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:525:y:2019:i:c:p:1343-1350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.03.100
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    Cited by:

    1. Weibo Li & Wei Liu & Lei Wu & Xue Guo, 2021. "Risk spillover networks in financial system based on information theory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Min Liu & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Wei‐Chong Choo, 2021. "An empirical study on the role of trading volume and data frequency in volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 792-816, August.
    3. Rodriguez, E. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2021. "Time-varying cross-correlation between trading volume and returns in US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).

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