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Forecasting Construction Cost Index based on visibility graph: A network approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Rong
  • Ashuri, Baabak
  • Shyr, Yu
  • Deng, Yong

Abstract

Engineering News-Record (ENR), a professional magazine in the field of global construction engineering, publishes Construction Cost Index (CCI) every month. Cost estimators and contractors assess projects, arrange budgets and prepare bids by forecasting CCI. However, fluctuations and uncertainties of CCI cause irrational estimations now and then. This paper aims at achieving more accurate predictions of CCI based on a network approach in which time series is firstly converted into a visibility graph and future values are forecasted relied on link prediction. According to the experimental results, the proposed method shows satisfactory performance since the error measures are acceptable. Compared with other methods, the proposed method is easier to implement and is able to forecast CCI with less errors. It is convinced that the proposed method is efficient to provide considerably accurate CCI predictions, which will make contributions to the construction engineering by assisting individuals and organizations in reducing costs and making project schedules.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Rong & Ashuri, Baabak & Shyr, Yu & Deng, Yong, 2018. "Forecasting Construction Cost Index based on visibility graph: A network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 239-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:493:y:2018:i:c:p:239-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.10.052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Telesca & Zbigniew Czechowski, 2024. "Information–Theoretic Analysis of Visibility Graph Properties of Extremes in Time Series Generated by a Nonlinear Langevin Equation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Dong-Rui Chen & Chuang Liu & Yi-Cheng Zhang & Zi-Ke Zhang, 2019. "Predicting Financial Extremes Based on Weighted Visual Graph of Major Stock Indices," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-17, October.
    3. Fengchang Jiang & John Awaitey & Haiyan Xie, 2022. "Analysis of Construction Cost and Investment Planning Using Time Series Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, February.

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