IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v30y2012i11p917-927.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Empirical tests for identifying leading indicators of ENR Construction Cost Index

Author

Listed:
  • Baabak Ashuri
  • Seyed Mohsen Shahandashti
  • Jian Lu

Abstract

Engineering News-Record (ENR) publishes its Construction Cost Index (CCI) monthly. CCI is the weighted average price of construction activities in 20 United States (US) cities. CCI has widely been used for cost estimation, bid preparation and investment planning. Cost estimators and investment planners are not only interested in the current CCI, but also are interested in forecasting changes in CCI trends. However, CCI is subject to significant variations that are difficult to predict. An important step towards forecasting CCI trends is to identify its leading indicators. The research objective is to identify the leading indicators of CCI using empirical tests. The results of Granger causality tests show that consumer price index, crude oil price, producer price index, GDP, employment levels in construction, number of building permits, number of housing starts and money supply are the leading indicators of CCI. The results of Johansen’s cointegration tests show that money supply and crude oil price are the leading indicators with long-term relationships with CCI. These findings contribute to the body of knowledge in CCI forecasting. CCI can be predicted more accurately using its leading indicators. Cost estimators and capital project planners can benefit from better forecasting through reduction in uncertainty about future construction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Baabak Ashuri & Seyed Mohsen Shahandashti & Jian Lu, 2012. "Empirical tests for identifying leading indicators of ENR Construction Cost Index," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 917-927, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:30:y:2012:i:11:p:917-927
    DOI: 10.1080/01446193.2012.728709
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01446193.2012.728709
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01446193.2012.728709?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Rong & Ashuri, Baabak & Shyr, Yu & Deng, Yong, 2018. "Forecasting Construction Cost Index based on visibility graph: A network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 239-252.
    2. Craig S. Galbraith & Edward Graham & Jake Lee, 2024. "Impact of North Korean Threats on Housing Prices in South Korea: A Research Note," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(3), pages 361-371.
    3. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:30:y:2012:i:11:p:917-927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.