IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v465y2017icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Szybisz, Martín A.
  • Szybisz, Leszek

Abstract

The aim of the present work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimens in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model available in the literature, which is based on a nonlinear feedback (NLF) characterized by an exponent β>0. In the NLF model the accumulated consumer price index carries a finite time singularity of the type 1/(tc−t)(1−β)/β determining a critical time tc at which the economy would crash. It is shown that in the case of Brazil the entire episode cannot be described with a unique set of parameters because the time series was strongly affected by a change of policy. This fact gives support to the “so called” Lucas critique, who stated that model’s parameters usually change once policy changes. On the other hand, such a model is not able to provide any tc in the case of the weaker hyperinflation occurred in Israel. It is shown that in this case the fit of data yields β→0. This limit leads to the linear feedback formulation which does not predict any tc. An extension for the NLF model is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Szybisz, Martín A. & Szybisz, Leszek, 2017. "Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:465:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116304836
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M A Szybisz & L Szybisz, 2016. "Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation," Papers 1605.04945, arXiv.org.
    2. Mizuno, T. & Takayasu, M. & Takayasu, H., 2002. "The mechanism of double-exponential growth in hyper-inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 411-419.
    3. Mantegna,Rosario N. & Stanley,H. Eugene, 2007. "Introduction to Econophysics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521039871, November.
    4. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Sornette, D & Takayasu, H & Zhou, W.-X, 2003. "Finite-time singularity signature of hyperinflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 325(3), pages 492-506.
    6. José Antonio Ocampo, 1991. "Collapse and (Incomplete) Stabilization of the Nicaraguan Economy," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 331-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Constantino Tsallis & Celia Anteneodo & Lisa Borland & Roberto Osorio, 2003. "Nonextensive statistical mechanics and economics," Papers cond-mat/0301307, arXiv.org.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    9. Tsallis, Constantino & Anteneodo, Celia & Borland, Lisa & Osorio, Roberto, 2003. "Nonextensive statistical mechanics and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 89-100.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hartwell, Christopher A & Szybisz, Martin Andres, 2021. "Corralling Expectations: The Role of Institutions in (Hyper)Inflation," MPRA Paper 105612, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Szybisz, Martín A. & Szybisz, Leszek, 2017. "Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 91-108.
    2. Potirakis, Stelios M. & Zitis, Pavlos I. & Eftaxias, Konstantinos, 2013. "Dynamical analogy between economical crisis and earthquake dynamics within the nonextensive statistical mechanics framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(13), pages 2940-2954.
    3. Victor Olkhov, 2017. "Econophysics Macroeconomic Model," Papers 1701.06625, arXiv.org.
    4. Wang, Zhuo & Shang, Pengjian, 2021. "Generalized entropy plane based on multiscale weighted multivariate dispersion entropy for financial time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Yariv, Leeat & Jackson, Matthew O., 2018. "The Non-Existence of Representative Agents," CEPR Discussion Papers 13397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    7. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    8. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elvio Accinelli & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2007. "Modelos económicos con múltiples regímenes," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 1(2), pages 96-115.
    11. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tryphon Kollintzas, 1986. "Tax Policy under Nongeometric Physical Depreciation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 263-288, July.
    14. He, Yong, 2018. "Can the visible and invisible hands coexist in land pricing?," MPRA Paper 88770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "International Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks under Pegged and Floating Exchange Rates: Simulation Experiments," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 162-231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lozej, Matija & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model," Economic Letters 04/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. I. Bukina S. & P. Orekhovsky A. & И. Букина С. & П. Ореховский А., 2018. "Особенности российской модели экономического роста // Specific features of the Russian Economic Growth Model," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(6), pages 6-24.
    18. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bruno Frey, 2011. "Tullock challenges: happiness, revolutions, and democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 269-281, September.
    20. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    21. Juan Manuel Larrosa, 2016. "Agentes computacionales y análisis económico," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(34), pages 87-113, January-J.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:465:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.