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Time series dynamics of US State unemployment rates

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  • James Payne
  • Bradley Ewing
  • Erik George

Abstract

This paper examines the time series properties of state and national unemployment rates. Based upon unit root, variance ratio, and cointegration tests, as well as Granger-causality and error-correction model results, several important conclusions can be made. First, forecasting models that include only levels of unemployment rates may produce spurious regression results. Second, in the vast majority of cases, there is no long run co-movement between the aggregate US unemployment rate and individual state unemployment rates. Third, models that are specified in first-differences generally yield reliable insights into state-national unemployment relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • James Payne & Bradley Ewing & Erik George, 1999. "Time series dynamics of US State unemployment rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1503-1510.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:11:p:1503-1510
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499323364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu & Mirel Daniel Simionescu, 2017. "The Connection between Foreign Direct Investment and Unemployment Rate in the United States," Working papers Globalization - Economic, Social and Moral Implications, April 2017 18, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    2. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
    3. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    4. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    5. Bradley Ewing & Jamie Kruse & Mark Thompson, 2009. "Twister! Employment responses to the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 691-702.
    6. André Mollick, 2008. "What explains unemployment in US–Mexican border cities?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 169-182, March.
    7. Ewing, Bradley T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2001. "Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 273-282, November.
    8. Bradley T. Ewing & William Levernier & Farooq Malik, 2002. "The Differential Effects of Output Shocks on Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 584-599, January.
    9. Clemente, Jesus & Lanaspa, Luis & Montanes, Antonio, 2005. "The unemployment structure of the US states," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 848-868, September.
    10. Bradley Ewing & William Levernier & Farooq Malik, 2005. "Modeling Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender: A Nonlinear Time Series Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 333-347, Summer.
    11. Ewing, Bradley T. & Kruse, Jamie Brown & Thompson, Mark A., 2004. "Employment Dynamics and the Nashville Tornado," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1-14.
    12. Bradley T. Ewing & Jamie Brown Kruse, 2002. "The Impact of Project Impact on the Wilmington, North Carolina, Labor Market," Public Finance Review, , vol. 30(4), pages 296-309, July.

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