IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v388y2009i17p3572-3580.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion

Author

Listed:
  • Ding, Fei
  • Liu, Yun

Abstract

In order to maximize cost efficiency from scarce marketing resources, marketers are facing the problem of which group of consumers to target for promotions. We propose to use a decision theoretical approach to model this strategic situation. According to one promotion model that we develop, marketers balance between probabilities of successful persuasion and the expected profits on a diffusion scale, before making their decisions. In the other promotion model, the cost for identifying influence information is considered, and marketers are allowed to ignore individual heterogeneity. We apply the proposed approach to two threshold influence models, evaluate the utility of each promotion action, and provide discussions about the best strategy. Our results show that efforts for targeting influentials or easily influenced people might be redundant under some conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Fei & Liu, Yun, 2009. "A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3572-3580.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:17:p:3572-3580
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.05.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437109003835
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2009.05.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    2. David Godes & Dina Mayzlin, 2009. "Firm-Created Word-of-Mouth Communication: Evidence from a Field Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 721-739, 07-08.
    3. Christophe Van den Bulte & Yogesh V. Joshi, 2007. "New Product Diffusion with Influentials and Imitators," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 400-421, 05-06.
    4. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    5. Nekovee, M. & Moreno, Y. & Bianconi, G. & Marsili, M., 2007. "Theory of rumour spreading in complex social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(1), pages 457-470.
    6. Delre, S.A. & Jager, W. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Janssen, M.A., 2007. "Targeting and timing promotional activities: An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 826-835, August.
    7. Duncan J. Watts & Peter Sheridan Dodds, 2007. "Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 441-458, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    2. Nejad, Mohammad G. & Amini, Mehdi & Babakus, Emin, 2015. "Success Factors in Product Seeding: The Role of Homophily," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 68-88.
    3. Rand, William & Rust, Roland T., 2011. "Agent-based modeling in marketing: Guidelines for rigor," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 181-193.
    4. Sebastian Schneider & Frank Huber, 2022. "You paid what!? Understanding price-related word-of-mouth and price perception among opinion leaders and innovators," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(1), pages 64-80, February.
    5. Florian Probst & Laura Grosswiele & Regina Pfleger, 2013. "Who will lead and who will follow: Identifying Influential Users in Online Social Networks," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 5(3), pages 179-193, June.
    6. Xiao, Yu & Han, Jingti, 2016. "Forecasting new product diffusion with agent-based models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-178.
    7. Liu-Thompkins, Yuping & Rogerson, Michelle, 2012. "Rising to Stardom: An Empirical Investigation of the Diffusion of User-generated Content," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 71-82.
    8. Tuan Q. Phan & David Godes, 2018. "The Evolution of Influence Through Endogenous Link Formation," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(2), pages 259-278, March.
    9. Inyoung Chae & Andrew T. Stephen & Yakov Bart & Dai Yao, 2017. "Spillover Effects in Seeded Word-of-Mouth Marketing Campaigns," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(1), pages 89-104, January.
    10. Gandal, Neil & Bar-Gill, Sagit, 2017. "Online Exploration, Content Choice & Echo Chambers: An Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Abedi, Vahideh Sadat, 2019. "Compartmental diffusion modeling: Describing customer heterogeneity & communication network to support decisions for new product introductions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    12. Claus, Bart & Geyskens, Kelly & Millet, Kobe & Dewitte, Siegfried, 2012. "The referral backfire effect: The identity-threatening nature of referral failure," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 370-379.
    13. Amini, Mehdi & Wakolbinger, Tina & Racer, Michael & Nejad, Mohammad G., 2012. "Alternative supply chain production–sales policies for new product diffusion: An agent-based modeling and simulation approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 301-311.
    14. Franses, Philip Hans, 2021. "Modeling box office revenues of motion pictures✰," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Raghuram Iyengar & Christophe Van den Bulte & Thomas W. Valente, 2011. "Opinion Leadership and Social Contagion in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 195-212, 03-04.
    16. Chumnumpan, Pattarin & Shi, Xiaohui, 2019. "Understanding new products’ market performance using Google Trends," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-103.
    17. Jing Wang & Anocha Aribarg & Yves F. Atchadé, 2013. "Modeling Choice Interdependence in a Social Network," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 977-997, November.
    18. Olivier Toubia & Jacob Goldenberg & Rosanna Garcia, 2014. "Improving Penetration Forecasts Using Social Interactions Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 3049-3066, December.
    19. Byrka, Katarzyna & Jȩdrzejewski, Arkadiusz & Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Difficulty is critical: The importance of social factors in modeling diffusion of green products and practices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 723-735.
    20. Michael Braun & André Bonfrer, 2011. "Scalable Inference of Customer Similarities from Interactions Data Using Dirichlet Processes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 513-531, 05-06.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:17:p:3572-3580. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.