Testing the stability of the 2000 US stock market “antibubble”
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.09.032
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003.
"2000–2003 real estate bubble in the UK but not in the USA,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 249-263.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Evaluation Of The Quantitative Prediction Of A Trend Reversal On The Japanese Stock Market In 1999," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 359-364.
- Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2005.
"World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 267-295, July.
- Albuquerque,Rui Andre Pinto De & Loayza,Norman V. & Serven,Luis, 2003. "World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3060, The World Bank.
- Ide, Kayo & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 63-106.
- Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006.
"Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," Papers cond-mat/0304601, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2004.
- Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003.
"Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 543-583.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2002. "Evidence of a Worldwide Stock Market Log-Periodic Anti-Bubble Since Mid-2000," Papers cond-mat/0212010, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004.
"Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "Causal Slaving of the U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Antibubble by the Stock Market Antibubble of August 2000," Papers cond-mat/0312658, arXiv.org.
- B. M. Roehner, 2000. "Determining bottom price-levels after a speculative peak," Papers cond-mat/0009222, arXiv.org.
- B. M. Roehner, 2000. "Identifying The Bottom Line After A Stock Market Crash," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 91-100.
- Gnaciński, Piotr & Makowiec, Danuta, 2004. "Another type of log-periodic oscillations on Polish stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 322-325.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009.
"A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003-2006," Papers physics/0701171, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2008.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010.
"Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, "undated". "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006.
"Fundamental factors versus herding in the 2000–2005 US stock market and prediction,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 459-482.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2005. "Fundamental Factors versus Herding in the 2000-2005 US Stock Market and Prediction," Papers physics/0505079, arXiv.org.
- Guilherme Demos & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Lagrange regularisation approach to compare nested data sets and determine objectively financial bubbles' inceptions," Papers 1707.07162, arXiv.org.
- Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
- Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016.
"LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
- Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zeynel A. Ozdemir & Hakan Yetkiner, 2016. "LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 201606, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
- Zhou, Wei & Huang, Yang & Chen, Jin, 2018. "The bubble and anti-bubble risk resistance analysis on the metal futures in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 947-957.
- Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
- Gisler, Monika & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan, 2011. "Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1412-1425.
- Demos, G. & Sornette, D., 2019. "Comparing nested data sets and objectively determining financial bubbles’ inceptions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 661-675.
- Dean Fantazzini, 2011. "Forecasting the Global Financial Crisis in the Years 2009-2010: Ex-post Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3259-3267.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004.
"Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "Antibubble and Prediction of China's stock market and Real-Estate," Papers cond-mat/0312149, arXiv.org.
- Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013.
"Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Geraskin, Petr, 2011. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Log Periodic Power Laws for Bubble Modelling but Were Afraid to Ask," MPRA Paper 47869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004.
"Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "Causal Slaving of the U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Antibubble by the Stock Market Antibubble of August 2000," Papers cond-mat/0312658, arXiv.org.
- Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
- Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2003.
"The US 2000-2002 market descent: clarification,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 39-41.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "The US 2000-2003 Market Descent: Clarifications," Papers cond-mat/0305004, arXiv.org.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010.
"Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, "undated". "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
- Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
- Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009.
"A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003-2006," Papers physics/0701171, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2008.
- Ruiqiang Song & Min Shu & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?," Papers 2101.00327, arXiv.org.
- Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016.
"LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
- Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zeynel A. Ozdemir & Hakan Yetkiner, 2016. "LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 201606, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
- Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators," Papers 1103.1992, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.
- Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2004.
"Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 412-440.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market," Papers cond-mat/0306496, arXiv.org.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016.
"Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask," MPRA Paper 71946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006.
"Fundamental factors versus herding in the 2000–2005 US stock market and prediction,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 459-482.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2005. "Fundamental Factors versus Herding in the 2000-2005 US Stock Market and Prediction," Papers physics/0505079, arXiv.org.
More about this item
Keywords
Econophysics; Prediction; Log-periodic power law; Antibubble; Hypothesis test;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:348:y:2005:i:c:p:428-452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.