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Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Zhi-Qiang JIANG

    (East China University of Science and Technology (School of Business, School of Science Research Center for Econophysics))

  • Wei-Xing ZHOU

    (East China University of Science and Technology (School of Business, School of Science Research Center for Econophysics) and Research Center on Fictitious Economics & Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Didier SORNETTE

    (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Ryan WOODARD

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Ken BASTIAENSEN

    (BNP Paribas Fortis)

  • Peter CAUWELS

    (BNP Paribas Fortis)

Abstract

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the logperiodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles. It embodies a positive feedback loop of higher return anticipations competing with negative feedback spirals of crash expectations. We use the LPPL model in one of its incarnations to analyze two bubbles and subsequent market crashes in two important indexes in the Chinese stock markets between May 2005 and July 2009. Both the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index (US ticker symbol SSEC) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component index (SZSC) exhibited such behavior in two distinct time periods: 1) from mid-2005, bursting in October 2007 and 2) from November 2008, bursting in the beginning of August 2009. We successfully predicted time windows for both crashes in advance [24, 1] with the same methods used to successfully predict the peak in mid-2006 of the US housing bubble [37] and the peak in July 2008 of the global oil bubble [26]. The more recent bubble in the Chinese indexes was detected and its end or change of regime was predicted independently by two groups with similar results, showing that the model has been well-documented and can be replicated by industrial practitioners. Here we present more detailed analysis of the individual Chinese index predictions and of the methods used to make and test them. We complement the detection of log-periodic behavior with Lomb spectral analysis of detrended residuals and (H, q)-derivative of logarithmic indexes for both bubbles. We perform unit-root tests on the residuals from the log-periodic power law model to confirm the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck property of bounded residuals, in agreement with the consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles [16].

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0939
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market crash; financial bubble; Chinese markets; rational expectation bubble; herding; log-periodic power law; Lomb spectral analysis; unit-root test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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