IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v245y1997i3p411-422.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Large financial crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Sornette, Didier
  • Johansen, Anders

Abstract

We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after crashes (D. Sornette, A. Johansen, J.P. Bouchaud, J. Phys. I France 6 (1996) 167) by including the first non-linear correction. This predicts the existence of a log-frequency shift over time in the log-periodic oscillations prior to a crash. This is tested on the two largest historical crashes of the century, the October 1929 and October 1987 crashes, by fitting the stock market index over an interval of 8 yr prior to the crashes. The good quality of the fits, as well as the consistency of the parameter values obtained from the two crashes, promote the theory that crashes have their origin in the collective “crowd” behavior of many interacting agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:245:y:1997:i:3:p:411-422
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(97)00318-X
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843719700318X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/S0378-4371(97)00318-X?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alain Arneodo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont & Jean-Francois Muzy & Marc Potters & Didier Sornette, 1996. "Comment on "Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets"," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 9607120, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    2. L. Ingber & M.F. Wehner & G.M. Jabbour & T.M. Barnhill, 1991. "Application of statistical mechanics methodology to term-structure bond-pricing models," Lester Ingber Papers 91as, Lester Ingber.
    3. James Verdier & Rebecca Dodge & Lisa Chimento & Joel Menges & Moira Forbes, "undated". "Using Data Strategically in Medicaid Managed Care," Mathematica Policy Research Reports a9627d6381e448088b25fe89d, Mathematica Policy Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1998. "A hierarchical model of financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 581-598.
    2. L. Ingber & B. Rosen, 1992. "Genetic algorithms and very fast simulated reannealing: A comparison," Lester Ingber Papers 92ga, Lester Ingber.
    3. Bak, P. & Paczuski, M. & Shubik, M., 1997. "Price variations in a stock market with many agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 430-453.
    4. Victor Lebreton, 2007. "Le trading algorithmique," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00332823, HAL.
    5. L. Ingber & J.K. Wilson, 1999. "Volatility of volatility of financial markets," Lester Ingber Papers 99vv, Lester Ingber.
    6. Litvin, Vladimir A., 2004. "Multiscaling behavior in transition economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 178-183.
    7. L. Ingber, 1994. "Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions: Path-integral evolution of short-term memory," Lester Ingber Papers 94ni, Lester Ingber.
    8. Ingber, Lester, 2000. "High-resolution path-integral development of financial options," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(3), pages 529-558.
    9. Litvin, Vladimir A., 2004. "Multiscaling behavior of transition economies before and after 1998 Russian financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 19-23.
    10. L. Ingber, 1992. "Generic mesoscopic neural networks based on statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions," Lester Ingber Papers 92gm, Lester Ingber.
    11. Lester Ingber, 2020. "Developing Bid-Ask Probabilities for High-Frequency Trading," Virtual Economics, The London Academy of Science and Business, vol. 3(2), pages 7-24, April.
    12. Sosa-Correa, William O. & Ramos, Antônio M.T. & Vasconcelos, Giovani L., 2018. "Investigation of non-Gaussian effects in the Brazilian option market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 496(C), pages 525-539.
    13. Lester Ingber & Radu Paul Mondescu, 2000. "Optimization of Trading Physics Models of Markets," Papers physics/0007075, arXiv.org.
    14. L. Ingber, 1993. "Statistical mechanics of combat and extensions," Lester Ingber Papers 93ce, Lester Ingber.
    15. Budaev, V.P., 2004. "Turbulence in magnetized plasmas and financial markets: comparative study of multifractal statistics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 299-307.
    16. Bardhan, K.K., 1997. "Nonlinear conduction in composites above percolation threshold — beyond the backbone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 267-277.
    17. Ren, F. & Zheng, B. & Lin, H. & Wen, L.Y. & Trimper, S., 2005. "Persistence probabilities of the German DAX and Shanghai Index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 439-450.
    18. L. Ingber & J.K. Wilson, 2000. "Statistical mechanics of financial markets: Exponential modifications to Black-Scholes," Lester Ingber Papers 00fm, Lester Ingber.
    19. Cizeau, Pierre & Liu, Yanhui & Meyer, Martin & Peng, C.-K. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1997. "Volatility distribution in the S&P500 stock index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 441-445.
    20. L. Ingber, 2002. "Statistical mechanics of portfolios of options," Lester Ingber Papers 02po, Lester Ingber.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:245:y:1997:i:3:p:411-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.