IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v324y2003i1p344-351.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econonatology: the physics of the economy in labour

Author

Listed:
  • Struzik, Zbigniew R.

Abstract

A fear of crashes preoccupies stock market observers, both investors and economic decision makers (governments, banks). This is reflected in major efforts to predict future stock values. However, an economic system under prolonged stress may have in its nature to plunge to lower performance levels but recover without suffering damage. To support this claim, we draw parallels between two complex systems: that of the heart, as observed through the rate of heartbeat, and the economy, measured by the stock index record. The ultimate stress situation of fetal heartbeat during labour provides a conceptual basis for accommodating heavy crashes. It also suggests a different perspective for evaluating crashes and post crash recovery in order to diagnose, and (ultimately) prognose, ‘economic health’, in addition to monitoring the stock index value.

Suggested Citation

  • Struzik, Zbigniew R., 2003. "Econonatology: the physics of the economy in labour," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 344-351.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:324:y:2003:i:1:p:344-351
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01894-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437102018940
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01894-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
    2. Marc-Etienne Brachet & Erik Taflin & Jean Marcel Tcheou, 1999. "Scaling transformation and probability distributions for financial time series," Papers cond-mat/9905169, arXiv.org.
    3. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Evaluation Of The Quantitative Prediction Of A Trend Reversal On The Japanese Stock Market In 1999," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 359-364.
    4. Vandewalle, N. & Boveroux, Ph. & Minguet, A. & Ausloos, M., 1998. "The crash of October 1987 seen as a phase transition: amplitude and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 201-210.
    5. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    6. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
    7. Struzik, Zbigniew R. & van Wijngaarden, Willem J. & Castelo, Robert, 2002. "Reasoning from non-stationarity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 246-255.
    8. Struzik, Zbigniew R., 2001. "Wavelet methods in (financial) time-series processing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 307-319.
    9. Marc-Etienne BRACHET & Erik TAFLIN & Jean Marcel TCHEOU, 1999. "Scaling transformation and probability distributions for financial time series," GE, Growth, Math methods 9901003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Plamen Ch. Ivanov & Luís A. Nunes Amaral & Ary L. Goldberger & Shlomo Havlin & Michael G. Rosenblum & Zbigniew R. Struzik & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Multifractality in human heartbeat dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6735), pages 461-465, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 543-583.
    2. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 2002. "Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0210509, arXiv.org.
    3. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Renormalization group analysis of the 2000–2002 anti-bubble in the US S&P500 index: explanation of the hierarchy of five crashes and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 584-604.
    4. Hans-Christian Graf v. Bothmer, 2003. "Significance of log-periodic signatures in cumulative noise," Papers cond-mat/0302507, arXiv.org, revised May 2003.
    5. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    6. Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
    7. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
    8. Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013. "Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
    9. Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2003. "Nonparametric Analyses Of Log-Periodic Precursors To Financial Crashes," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(08), pages 1107-1125.
    10. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
    11. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    12. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2004. "Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 412-440.
    14. Damian Smug & Peter Ashwin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
    16. Struzik, Zbigniew R. & Siebes, Arno P.J.M., 2002. "Wavelet transform based multifractal formalism in outlier detection and localisation for financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 388-402.
    17. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
    18. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
    19. D. Sornette & R. Woodard, "undated". "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    20. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:324:y:2003:i:1:p:344-351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.