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Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?

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  • Stanley, H.Eugene

Abstract

We present an overview of recent research applying ideas of statistical physics to try to better understand puzzles regarding economic fluctuations. One of these puzzles is how to describe outliers, phenomena that lie outside of patterns of statistical regularity. We review evidence consistent with the possibility that such outliers may not exist. This possibility is supported by recent analysis by Plerou et al. of a database containing the bid, ask, and sale price of each trade of every stock. Further, the data support the picture of economic fluctuations, due to Plerou et al., in which a financial market alternates between being in an “equilibrium phase” where market behavior is split roughly equally between buying and selling, and an “out-of-equilibrium phase” where the market is mainly either buying or selling.

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  • Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 279-292.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:318:y:2003:i:1:p:279-292
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01825-3
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    1. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    2. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2002. "Statistical models for company growth," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500021, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    3. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & L. A. N. Amaral & M. Meyer & H. E. Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies," Papers cond-mat/9907161, arXiv.org.
    4. Blake LeBaron, 2001. "Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & H. Eugene Stanley, 2003. "Two-phase behaviour of financial markets," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6919), pages 130-130, January.
    6. Youngki Lee & Luis A. N. Amaral & David Canning & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations," Papers cond-mat/9804100, arXiv.org.
    7. L. A. N. Amaral & S. V. Buldyrev & S. Havlin & H. Leschhorn & P. Maass & M. A. Salinger & H. E. Stanley & M. H. R. Stanley, 1997. "Scaling behavior in economics: I. Empirical results for company growth," Papers cond-mat/9702082, arXiv.org.
    8. Sutton, John, 2002. "The variance of firm growth rates: the ‘scaling’ puzzle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 577-590.
    9. Yanhui Liu & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Pierre Cizeau & Martin Meyer & Chung-Kang Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "The statistical properties of the volatility of price fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/9903369, arXiv.org, revised Mar 1999.
    10. Kaushik Matia & Yosef Ashkenazy & H. Eugene Stanley, 2003. "Multifractal Properties of Price Fluctuations of Stocks and Commodities," Papers cond-mat/0308012, arXiv.org.
    11. Yanhui Liu & Pierre Cizeau & Martin Meyer & Chung-Kang Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1997. "Correlations in Economic Time Series," Papers cond-mat/9706021, arXiv.org.
    12. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2000. "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0008113, arXiv.org.
    13. Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
    14. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    16. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Martin Meyer & Luis A Nunes Amaral & H Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Inverse Cubic Law for the Probability Distribution of Stock Price Variations," Papers cond-mat/9803374, arXiv.org, revised May 1998.
    17. Liu, Yanhui & Cizeau, Pierre & Meyer, Martin & Peng, C.-K. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1997. "Correlations in economic time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 437-440.
    18. Cizeau, Pierre & Liu, Yanhui & Meyer, Martin & Peng, C.-K. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1997. "Volatility distribution in the S&P500 stock index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 441-445.
    19. Vasiliki Plerou & Luís A. Nunes Amaral & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Similarities between the growth dynamics of university research and of competitive economic activities," Nature, Nature, vol. 400(6743), pages 433-437, July.
    20. Kaushik Matia & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Stephen P. Goodwin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2002. "Non-L\'evy Distribution of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/0202028, arXiv.org.
    21. Timothy H. Keitt & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 393(6682), pages 257-260, May.
    22. Pierre Cizeau & Yanhui Liu & Martin Meyer & C. -K. Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1997. "Volatility distribution in the S&P500 Stock Index," Papers cond-mat/9708143, arXiv.org.
    23. Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Gabaix, X. & Amaral, L.A.N. & Stanley, H.E., 2001. "Price fluctuations and market activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 137-143.
    24. P. Gopikrishnan & M. Meyer & L.A.N. Amaral & H.E. Stanley, 1998. "Inverse cubic law for the distribution of stock price variations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 139-140, July.
    25. B. LeBaron, 2001. "Stochastic volatility as a simple generator of apparent financial power laws and long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(6), pages 621-631.
    26. S. V. Buldyrev & L. A. N. Amaral & S. Havlin & H. Leschhorn & P. Maass & M. A. Salinger & H. E. Stanley & M. H. R. Stanley, 1997. "Scaling behavior in economics: II. Modeling of company growth," Papers cond-mat/9702085, arXiv.org.
    27. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & X. Gabaix & L. A. N. Amaral & H. E. Stanley, 2001. "Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 262-269.
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    3. Zhang, Guofu & Li, Jingjing, 2018. "Multifractal analysis of Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets before and after the connect program," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 611-622.
    4. Potirakis, Stelios M. & Zitis, Pavlos I. & Eftaxias, Konstantinos, 2013. "Dynamical analogy between economical crisis and earthquake dynamics within the nonextensive statistical mechanics framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(13), pages 2940-2954.
    5. Cristescu, C.P. & Stan, C. & Scarlat, E.I., 2009. "The dynamics of exchange rate time series and the chaos game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(23), pages 4845-4855.
    6. Maria Pia Beccar Varela & Francis Biney & Ionut Florescu, 2015. "Long correlations and fractional difference analysis applied to the study of memory effects in high-frequency (tick) data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 1365-1374, August.
    7. Victor Olkhov, 2017. "Econophysics Macroeconomic Model," Papers 1701.06625, arXiv.org.
    8. Groot, Robert D., 2005. "Lévy distribution and long correlation times in supermarket sales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 501-514.
    9. Haas, Markus, 2009. "Persistence in volatility, conditional kurtosis, and the Taylor property in absolute value GARCH processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(15), pages 1674-1683, August.
    10. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louçã, 2007. "The Seismography of Crashes in Financial Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Ma, Pengcheng & Li, Daye & Li, Shuo, 2016. "Efficiency and cross-correlation in equity market during global financial crisis: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 163-176.
    12. Olkhov, Victor, 2016. "On Economic Space notion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-381.
    13. R. D. Groot, 2004. "Levy distribution and long correlation times in supermarket sales," Papers cond-mat/0412163, arXiv.org.
    14. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "Fractal Markets Hypothesis And The Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons And Liquidity," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(06), pages 1-13.
    15. Miguel A Fuentes & Austin Gerig & Javier Vicente, 2009. "Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-4, December.

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