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Two-phase behaviour of financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Vasiliki Plerou

    (Boston University)

  • Parameswaran Gopikrishnan

    (Boston University
    Goldman Sachs)

  • H. Eugene Stanley

    (Boston University)

Abstract

Buying and selling in financial markets is driven by demand, which can be quantified by the imbalance in the number of shares transacted by buyers and sellers over a given time interval. Here we analyse the probability distribution of demand, conditioned on its local noise intensity Σ, and discover the surprising existence of a critical threshold, Σc. For Σ Σc, two most probable values emerge that are symmetrical around zero demand, corresponding to excess demand and excess supply1; we interpret this as an out-of-equilibrium phase in which the market behaviour is mainly buying for half of the time, and mainly selling for the other half.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & H. Eugene Stanley, 2003. "Two-phase behaviour of financial markets," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6919), pages 130-130, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:421:y:2003:i:6919:d:10.1038_421130a
    DOI: 10.1038/421130a
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. T. T. Chen & B. Zheng & Y. Li & X. F. Jiang, 2017. "New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems," Papers 1703.06840, arXiv.org.
    2. Fujita, Yasunori, 2008. "Competition and welfare for a stochastically fluctuating market with irreversible decisions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2846-2850.
    3. Dutta, Srimonti & Ghosh, Dipak & Chatterjee, Sucharita, 2016. "Multifractal detrended Cross Correlation Analysis of Foreign Exchange and SENSEX fluctuation in Indian perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 188-201.
    4. Fa-Bin Shi & Xiao-Qian Sun & Jin-Hua Gao & Li Xu & Hua-Wei Shen & Xue-Qi Cheng, 2019. "Anomaly detection in Bitcoin market via price return analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-11, June.
    5. Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 279-292.
    6. Anthony E. Krzesinski & Andre Costa & Maya Ramakrishnan & Peter G. Taylor, 2007. "A Comment On Two-Phase Behavior Of Financial Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 89-93.
    7. Kang, Bo Soo & Park, Chanhi & Ryu, Doojin & Song, Wonho, 2015. "Phase transition phenomenon: A compound measure analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 383-395.
    8. Kozłowska, M. & Denys, M. & Wiliński, M. & Link, G. & Gubiec, T. & Werner, T.R. & Kutner, R. & Struzik, Z.R., 2016. "Dynamic bifurcations on financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 126-142.
    9. Taisei Kaizoji, 2013. "Modelling of Stock Returns and Trading Volume," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 147-155, July.
    10. Fang, Wen & Ke, Jinchuan & Wang, Jun & Feng, Ling, 2016. "Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 531-542.
    11. Manzini, Paola & Mariotti, Marco, 2018. "Dual random utility maximisation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 162-182.
    12. Zitis, Pavlos I. & Contoyiannis, Yiannis & Potirakis, Stelios M., 2022. "Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Kostanjcar, Zvonko & Jeren, Branko & Juretic, Zeljan, 2012. "Impact of uncertainty in expected return estimation on stock price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5563-5571.
    14. Neeraj, & Panigrahi, Prasanta K., 2017. "Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 284-313.
    15. Maldarella, Dario & Pareschi, Lorenzo, 2012. "Kinetic models for socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 715-730.
    16. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & H. Eugene Stanley, 2005. "Two phase behaviour and the distribution of volume," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 519-521.
    17. Taisei Kaizoji, 2013. "Modeling of Stock Returns and Trading Volume," Papers 1309.2416, arXiv.org.
    18. Groot, Robert D. & Musters, Pieter A.D., 2005. "Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 533-547.
    19. Sousa, Tânia & Domingos, Tiago, 2006. "Equilibrium econophysics: A unified formalism for neoclassical economics and equilibrium thermodynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(2), pages 492-512.
    20. Hirata, Yoshito & Aihara, Kazuyuki, 2012. "Timing matters in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 760-766.
    21. Lei Tan & Bo Zheng & Jun-Jie Chen & Xiong-Fei Jiang, 2015. "How Volatilities Nonlocal in Time Affect the Price Dynamics in Complex Financial Systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, February.
    22. Ryu, Doojin, 2013. "What types of investors generate the two-phase phenomenon?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5939-5946.
    23. Kang, Bo Soo & Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon, 2014. "Phase-shifting behaviour revisited: An alternative measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 167-173.

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