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Profitability of technical trading rules in the Chinese stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Chuang, O-Chia
  • Chuang, Hui-Ching
  • Wang, Zixuan
  • Xu, Jin

Abstract

This article examines the profitability of technical analysis on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) Index, employing stepwise generalized error rate control procedures to address the data-snooping bias. Our comprehensive study encompasses 38,456 trading rules, extending beyond prior research by incorporating simple rules alongside their contrarian and complex counterparts. Upon rectifying data-snooping bias, we show that only a few complex rules outperform SSEC in different testing sub-periods, and no trading rules outperform GEM. As the outperforming rules are based on relatively high frequent trades, most lucrative rules yield negative returns in the out-of-sample periods once transaction costs were considered. Our new findings shed light on the efficiency of the Chinese stock market from 2010 to 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuang, O-Chia & Chuang, Hui-Ching & Wang, Zixuan & Xu, Jin, 2024. "Profitability of technical trading rules in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:84:y:2024:i:c:s0927538x24000295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102278
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technical analysis; Multiple testing; Stepwise RC test; FWER; FDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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