IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000174/014748.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Gutiérrez, Martha
  • Franco, Giovanni
  • Campuzano, Carlos

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Gold is a commodity that is seen as a safe haven when a financial crisis strikes, but when stock markets are prosperous, these are more attractive investment alternatives, and so the gold cycle goes on and on. The DJIA/GF (Dow Jones Industrial Average and Gold Fix ratio) is chosen to establish the evolution of gold prices in relation to the NYSE. This paper has two goals: to prove that the DJIA/GF ratio is strongly cyclical by using Fourier analysis and to set a predictive neural networks model to forecast the behavior of this ratio during 2011-2020. To this end, business cycle events like the Great Depression along with the 1970s crisis, and the 1950s boom along with the world economic recovery of the 1990s are contrasted in light of the mentioned ratio. Gold prices are found to evolve cyclically with a dominant period of 37 years and are mainly affected by energy prices, financial markets and macroeconomic indicators. RESUMEN: El oro es un bien básico que se ve como refugio cuando una crisis financiera acontece; pero cuando los mercados de valores son prósperos, las acciones son una alternativa más atractiva, y así se da el ciclo del oro. El DJIA/GF (relación entre el Índice Industrial Dow Jones y el precio del oro) permite establecer la evolución de los precios del oro en relación con el NYSE. Este trabajo tiene dos objetivos: demostrar que la relación DJIA/ GF es fuertemente cíclica usando análisis de Fourier, y establecer un modelo de redes neuronales para predecir el comportamiento de esta relación durante 2011-2020. Para ello, eventos económicos cíclicos como la Gran Depresión junto con la crisis de los anos 70, y el auge de los anos 50 junto con la recuperación de los 90, se contrastan a la luz de la relación DJIA/GF. Se encuentra que los precios del oro evolucionan cíclicamente con un periodo dominante de 37 anos y están afectados principalmente por los precios de los energéticos, los mercados financieros e indicadores macroeconómicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutiérrez, Martha & Franco, Giovanni & Campuzano, Carlos, 2013. "Gold prices: Analyzing its cyclical behavior," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 79, pages 113-142, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:014748
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/lecturasdeeconomia/article/download/17950/15408
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Craig, Lee A. & Fisher, Douglas & Spencer, Theresa A., 1995. "Inflation and money growth under the international gold standard, 1850-1913," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-226.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Inoue, Kenta, 2013. "Central banks and gold puzzles," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 69-90.
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    5. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    6. Lothian, James R., 2002. "The internationalization of money and finance and the globalization of financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 699-724, November.
    7. Smith, Eric & Shubik, Martin, 2011. "Endogenizing the provision of money: Costs of commodity and fiat monies in relation to the value of trade," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4-5), pages 508-530.
    8. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
    9. Kearney, Adrienne A. & Lombra, Raymond E., 2009. "Gold and platinum: Toward solving the price puzzle," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 884-892, August.
    10. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 178-189, September.
    11. Parisi, Antonino & Parisi, Franco & Díaz, David, 2008. "Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 477-487, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    3. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    4. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
    5. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    6. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M. & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2015. "The gold price in times of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 329-339.
    7. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "World gold prices and stock returns in China: Insights for hedging and diversification strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 273-282.
    8. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Trends and cycles in historical gold and silver prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 98-109.
    9. Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Upward/downward multifractality and efficiency in metals futures markets: The impacts of financial and oil crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas, 2019. "Portfolio management and dependencies among precious metal markets: Evidence from a Copula quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Cui, Moyang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wisetsri, Worakamol & Mabrouk, Fatma & Muda, Iskandar & Li, Zeyun & Hassan, Marria, 2023. "Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Smales, L.A. & Lucey, B.M., 2019. "The influence of investor sentiment on the monetary policy announcement liquidity response in precious metal markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 19-38.
    13. Perry Sadorsky, 2021. "Predicting Gold and Silver Price Direction Using Tree-Based Classifiers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, April.
    14. Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wang, Shixuan & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "Return spillovers between white precious metal ETFs: The role of oil, gold, and global equity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 316-332.
    15. Rupel Nargunam & N. Anuradha, 2017. "Market efficiency of gold exchange-traded funds in India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Downside/upside price spillovers between precious metals: A vine copula approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 84-102.
    17. Gaye Hatice Gencer & Zafer Musoglu, 2014. "Volatility Modeling and Forecasting of Istanbul Gold Exchange (IGE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 87-101, April.
    18. Semeyutin, Artur & Downing, Gareth, 2022. "Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    20. Fenghua Wen & Xin Yang & Xu Gong & Kin Keung Lai, 2017. "Multi-Scale Volatility Feature Analysis and Prediction of Gold Price," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 205-223, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclo del oro; relación DJIA/GF; análisis de Fourier; pronóstico de red neuronal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000174:014748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad de Antioquia. Facultad de Ciencias Economicas. (Laura Maria Posada Arboleda) (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciantco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.