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Political uncertainty and sentiment: Evidence from the impact of Brexit on financial markets

Author

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  • Hudson, Robert
  • Urquhart, Andrew
  • Zhang, Hanxiong

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the impact of Brexit on financial markets is consistent with rational asset pricing models using 34 financial indices. Our results indicate that, whilst Brexit events affect both the risk and returns of stocks, the returns on event days are largely justified by the risk and the risk premium on those days. Our results support the appropriateness of rational asset pricing models even in a period of such high political uncertainty and potentially raised sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Hudson, Robert & Urquhart, Andrew & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2020. "Political uncertainty and sentiment: Evidence from the impact of Brexit on financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:129:y:2020:i:c:s0014292120301549
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103523
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    2. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    3. Davies, Ronald B. & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2018. "The heterogeneous impact of Brexit: Early indications from the FTSE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2010. "Sentiment and stock prices: The case of aviation disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 174-201, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Costola & Matteo Iacopini & Casper Wichers, 2023. "Bayesian SAR model with stochastic volatility and multiple time-varying weights," Papers 2310.17473, arXiv.org.
    2. Geiger, Martin & Güntner, Jochen, 2024. "The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Gao, Zhenbin & Zhang, Jie, 2023. "The fluctuation correlation between investor sentiment and stock index using VMD-LSTM: Evidence from China stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Cheng, Maoyong & Geng, Hongyan, 2021. "Do local firms employ political activities to respond to political uncertainty?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Drinkwater, Stephen & Blackaby, David H. & Robinson, Catherine, 2024. "What Mattered Most in the Brexit Vote? Evidence from Detailed Regression and Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 16841, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Alexander Koch & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Mei Wang, 2024. "News sentiment and international equity markets during BREXIT period: A textual and connectedness analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 5-34, January.
    8. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo & Wichers, Casper, 2023. "Bayesian SAR model with stochastic volatility and multiple time-varying weights," SAFE Working Paper Series 407, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; EU referendum; Risk; Investor sentiment; Market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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